The NFC Championship game quarterback battle is wild.
Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, will battle Alabama castoff Jalen Hurts for the right to go to the Super Bowl. These two even played once in the Big 12, with Hurts’ Sooners out-dueling Purdy’s Cyclones by the score of 42-41.
I’m struggling to find the best way to bet 49ers vs. Eagles from a side and total perspective, but remember, there’s always value in the player props market. By prop-shopping around, I’ve found ways to bet on these quarterbacks.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.
Let’s consider how to bet on Purdy and Hurts in the NFC title game.
Brock Purdy: Passing Yards Under
I’m selling the Niners offense in this game, and that starts with Purdy.
Since Purdy became the starter, San Francisco has played just two top-10 defenses by DVOA — the Commanders (No. 9) and Cowboys (No. 2).
Against Washington, the 49ers dropped a more than respectable 37 points while Purdy managed 234 passing yards. But against Dallas, they managed just 19 points on 312 yards of total offense at only 5.1 yards per play.
Purdy enters this contest as only the fifth rookie to play in the NFC Championship game. His challenge will be the best secondary as the Eagles' cornerback duo of James Bradberry and Darius Slay are not going to drop these interceptions:
#Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs dropped an INT that hit him right in the hands on Sunday.
Coach Al Harris made sure he'll pay for it with sideline push-ups 😂 pic.twitter.com/ka5kaIbqtV
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 26, 2023
The Eagles finished the regular season as the top pass defense by EPA per play allowed and DVOA, and they finished second in PFF’s coverage grades. Philly held an absurd 17-of-20 opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards prop this year.
So, despite the brilliance of Kyle Shanahan, the Niners offense is a tad overvalued. I’m willing to fade Purdy as a result.
While the line may seem low, Purdy only eclipsed 220 passing yards in three of his eight starts. He has played the role of hero very few times, and if the Niners make the Super Bowl, it won’t be because of a Purdy masterclass.
If I’m betting Purdy, I’m betting under his passing yards.
Best Betting Line: Under 222.5 (-110) at DraftKings
PrizePicks Line: Under 215.5
Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards Under
The Eagles received a lot of love for their rushing game this year, which is fair. Philadelphia has put together the deadliest rushing attack in the NFL by EPA per play, success rate and DVOA.
The rushing attack is a combination of an elite offensive line and Hurts’ read-option ability. Not only do defenses have to deal with a dominant point of attack, but they also have to defend 11-on-11.
While Hurts has the ability to dominate defenses with his legs, he hasn’t always needed to. It’s almost like the threat of Hurts rushing is more important than him actually running..
For example, Hurts demonstrated his rushing prowess by accumulating 243 of his 760 rushing yards in a two-week stint against Indianapolis and Green Bay. But Hurts eclipsed 40 rushing yards in just five of his other 14 games.
And this is a tough matchup. The 49ers have the league’s top rushing defense, spearheaded by a talented and disciplined defensive line that's smart enough to handle the read-option attack.
I think Hurts’ rushing yards line is far overvalued based on perception rather than realistic expectations. I’ll happily take the under on his rushing yards, especially in a game where I expect both defenses to outplay the opposing offenses.
Best Betting Line: Under 46.5 (-110) at BetMGM
PrizePicks Line: Under 44.5
