Anyone who has listened to my breakdowns of Brock Purdy, whether it's about his fantasy prospects or bets, won't be too surprised by this NFL prop. We're betting an over on his legs.
I have a 49ers vs. Seahawks bet tonight backing San Francisco on the first-half spread. You can read more about the game here with my preview. I also have a player prop for the game on Brock Purdy.
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49ers vs. Seahawks Player Prop
Brock Purdy was a very good two-way quarterback in college at Iowa State. If you look at his 40-yard dash, he ranked in the 99th percentile in the first 10 yards. He has very good short speed, and I’ve said he has similar rushing upside to someone like Patrick Mahomes (if he wanted to tap into it more).
We’ve seen Purdy do that more often than ever over the past few games, during which he’s averaging 4.3 scrambles per game. He'll easily clear this if he keeps that up.
I think part of the reason for the uptick could be that Purdy doesn’t have Christian McCaffrey as a check-down option. Jordan Mason simply hasn't been a big factor in the 49ers' passing game. I’m projecting him to dial it back a bit here, especially after Kyle Shanahan said after last week’s game he needs to be smarter about when he scrambles.
However, the “bad” scrambles he was referring to were when he took a sack. So, there’s still a chance Purdy may be more willing to just use his legs instead of buying time. The Seahawks play press coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL, which means it could throw Purdy's timing off a bit, which has been one of the reasons Purdy has scrambled lately.
Also, Purdy has the second-most first-down scrambles (nine) in the NFL this season, trailing just Jayden Daniels (11).
Finally, we have to worry about potential kneel-downs at the end of the game for these. It’s worth noting, though, that there have been games which Shanahan sent the backup out to take the knees like in Week 1 against the Jets. Purdy played the 49ers' last real drive of the game before Brandon Allen came out in victory formation.
Purdy took the knees in Week 3 against the Patriots, but he got a couple of first downs on the drive to get to the victory formation.
I'm projecting Purdy to clear 13.5 rushing yards around 58% of the time, but I do like his upside in this market right now. If you can get 11.5 or 12.5, that's great.
