In a surprising move just before Monday night, the San Francisco 49ers announced that star running back Christian McCaffrey would be ruled out for the season opener.
This unexpected twist has shifted the dynamic for the highly anticipated matchup between the 49ers and the New York Jets in almost every betting market.
Following this key development, our team updated our PRO Projections, a proprietary model developed by our NFL experts to identify betting advantages by comparing odds, player projections, and market data. Among the various player props that shifted, one stands out dramatically: Brock Purdy's rushing props.
As both teams prepare for their season opener, oddsmakers have favored the 49ers with an over/under set at approximately 41.5 points.
The absence of McCaffrey, a crucial player in San Francisco's offense, necessitates a recalibration of strategies for bettors looking to find an edge.
This context sets the stage for exploring Brock Purdy's props, particularly his rushing yards.
Brock Purdy Player Props vs. Jets: Projections Edge Without Christian McCaffrey
When a star player like McCaffrey is sidelined, it creates considerable ripple effects on an entire team's game plan. In the 49ers' case, with McCaffrey out, the vacuum left in the backfield won't be easily filled by a single replacement.
Instead, the 49ers may look to diversify their offensive approach, integrating more quarterback runs and designed plays for Brock Purdy. This adjustment opens up unique betting opportunities, specifically concerning Purdy's rushing yards.
The current odds for Brock Purdy's rushing yards are set at 6.5, with favorable betting odds of -105 available at Bet365. However, our PRO Projections see this differently. According to our calculations, Purdy is projected to rush for about 11.0 yards against the Jets. This discrepancy between the market line and our projection represents a significant 23.4% edge, meriting a A+ grade in terms of betting value.