It was announced on Saturday morning that Russell Wilson will have to miss the Broncos' vs. Jets game due to a hamstring injury, meaning Brett Rypien will get the start for the Broncos.
Russell Wilson (hamstring) will not play Sunday against the Jets.
Brett Rypien will start. pic.twitter.com/It6uhVXJCa
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 22, 2022
While it hasn't been the best year for Wilson, he's still a capable starting quarterback in the league.
The question is, just how much is Wilson worth in terms of the betting spread? Should this be an exponential shift in the numbers, or are we overestimating the extent to which the switch matters?
Originally, Denver opened as a 3.5-point favorite at home against the Jets, but the line has since moved to Jets -1.5, meaning there's been a five-point swing with the Wilson news.
According to the Action Network's predictive analytics team, that's about what you should expect in terms of spread movement.
The team projected the Broncos around the market price of Broncos -3.5 with a healthy Wilson, and they also have a ratings system to assist with quarterback adjustments.
On the basis of that ratings system, Wilson is projected as worth approximately 6.5 points, while Rypien is worth -2; but it's likely that Wilson isn't quite worth that much at this point in the season.
Essentially, the predictive analytics team believes that the market has responded appropriately to the news – now it's a matter of demand.
If the public believes this version of Wilson isn't worth a near-touchdown against his backup, this number will move back towards the Broncos.
However, if there is no level of faith that remains in the polarizing quarterback, the number could skew even more to New York.
We'll have to see as we get closer to gametime.
