Javonte Williams Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Broncos vs. Bears | 1 p.m. ET
Javonte Williams has been making a strong comeback following his ACL surgery as he's worked hard to regain his pre-injury speed. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry in his 2020 season, and this season he has quickly taken the reins in the Denver backfield with 23 carries in the last two games, compared to his teammate Semaje Perine's four rushes.
Williams has failed to meet his rushing yards prop in any of the previous games this season, mainly because of his team's defense, which has made it difficult to establish a running game in trailing game scripts. In Week 2, the Broncos lost to the Commanders after throwing away a 21-3 lead, which resulted in Williams getting only four carries in the second half.
Yet in Week 3, Williams showed promising efficiency as the game entered halftime. He carried the ball seven times for 43 yards, averaging 6.14 yards per carry before the Broncos were forced to abandon the run due to the Dolphins' second-half scoring spree.
This week the Broncos face the Chicago Bears, whose Missed Tackle Rate ranks 27th, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bears' Drive Success Rate is also among the worst in the league, which should allow the Broncos to control the field and time of possession.
Sportsbooks have set Williams' rush attempts line at 13.5, and to meet his target, he'll need to average at least 3.9 yards per carry. Fortunately for him, four of the five previous running backs with at least nine carries have gone over this line, including Aaron Jones, Rachaad White, Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
This is an ideal buy-low opportunity because the Broncos should be in a position for the first time to allow Williams to assert his dominance on the ground against a vulnerable Bears team.
I would bet Williams to exceed his rushing prop up to over 54.5 yards.
