Khalil Shakir +240
The Bills will lean heavily on the run in this game and use Josh Allen’s legs to extend plays. However, his scramble rate tends to go down in playoff games that aren’t relatively close, like against Pittsburgh last year and Miami the previous season.
In both games, the Bills were favored by seven or more and won each by double digits. Allen may still rush for a TD early, but I’d rather look at some of his pass-catchers, like WR Khalil Shakir or TE Dalton Kincaid.
The strength of the Broncos defense is their pass defense, led by DPOY candidate CB Patrick Surtain, who will likely shadow WR Amari Cooper to start the game. While I've liked what I've seen out of rookie WR Keon Coleman this season, especially against man coverage, this is his first playoff game.
We have to cap expectations. Shakir has been Allen's outlet all season and leads the team in first-down catches. When the Bills get to the red zone and things are tight, I expect Allen to target him.
At +240, it's the sweet spot for Shakir, who is as low as +185 to score this week.
Bo Nix +500
Over the last two Broncos games, I’ve been quite successful betting on WR Marvin Mims. He’s scored four TDs in those games and has provided a spark for the Broncos' passing game that sometimes relies a bit too much on Courtland Sutton.
Don’t get me wrong — Sutton is amazing, but at +160 against this Bills secondary that is underrated in coverage, I’d avoid the Broncos’ top receiving options for this game.
The Broncos angle I like is QB Bo Nix at +500.
The old adage that “rookie QBs tend to scramble in tough spots” shouldn’t be used as a blanket statement, but Nix’s scramble rate this season would tend to agree with that theory.
He was third in the NFL in total scrambles (behind Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams) this season (50), and his scramble rate tends to go up when he’s pressured AND isn’t blitzed.
The Bills are top 10 in pressure rate while ranking bottom five in blitz rate per game, which sets up nicely for a potential Nix scramble into the end zone.
VERDICT: Khalil Shakir +240 | Bo Nix +500
