Denver started the year as the league’s most disappointing team going from playoff contender to a 1-5 start. However, they have started to rebound as they have won their last two games with their latest win coming against Kansas City. Fresh off a bye against Buffalo is the perfect opportunity to show the victory against the Chiefs was no fluke.
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The Bills have followed the opposite path. Going from a blowout victory against Miami to a string of up-and-down weeks that now has them outside the playoff picture. Both of these teams are stumbling into the second half of the season and have made significant changes to their schemes.
Let's dive into my Monday Night Football same-game parlay for Bills-Broncos.
Bills vs Broncos SGP (+972 via FanDuel)
- Under 47.5 (-115)
- Russell Wilson Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Jaleel McLaughlin Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions (+132)
Under 47.5
The Broncos' adjustment in play style is the driving force of most of our prop picks. The Broncos have gone from throwing the ball 57% of the time to 48% of the time in the last three weeks. Their pivot to rushing the ball more has led to over 100 yards rushing in each of those games. Much better than crossing that mark twice in their first five games. Lastly, rushing more has helped protect their defense as they have held opponents under 20 points each of their last three games.
Turning to the Bills, their adjustments have been focused on running a more consistent offense. The main adjustment is utilizing short area throws and letting the Bills receivers create after the catch.
Josh Allen has had four straight games where his completed air yards per completion are below his season total.
These adjustments have caused the under to hit more frequently for these teams. In their last three games, the under has hit every time for the Broncos while the Bills have gone under in two of their last three. The scheme changes are there and recent performances have gone under. I am going to stick with that trend and add it to our parlay.
Russell Wilson Under 211.5 Passing Yards
We just mentioned how the Broncos are choosing to lean more on the run, this pick is a direct result of that shift.
In his last four games, Russ has gone under this number and has not even cracked 200 passing yards. The Bills have struggled against the pass this year as they rank 17th in net yards allowed per attempt.
However, they are much worse against the run, as they rank 30th in rush yards allowed per carry. If a run-first team can play it safe and move the ball up and down the field, they won’t think twice about throwing.
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Jaleel McLaughlin Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
I was hoping to take a Javonte Williams rushing over but this was far more appealing. The support for why Denver will run is above, so we will focus on the McLaughlin piece specifically.
McLaughlin came into the year as the third-string back and has played well enough each week to earn more and more work. His 83.8 PFF grade would rank 5th if he had the qualifying number of snaps.
In terms of production, despite low volume, McLaughlin has crossed this threshold in five straight games. Against a weak run defense, one carry might be all it takes for this speedster to crush this line.
Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 Receptions
Our last prop is for another guy who started off the year invisible but has come on lately. On the year, Shakir has caught 18 of his 19 targets including 14 for 14 in his last three games. His ability to work out of the slot has boosted his value as the Bills pivot to a short-area passing game. In the last two games, Shakir has played at least 65% of the team's offensive snaps. Before those, he had not broken 40%.
Gabe Davis is the guy Buffalo has leaned on as a number two to receiver Stefon Diggs. As anyone in the fantasy community will tell you though, Davis has struggled to meet those expectations.
Shakir is 28th at the receiver position per PFF’s grades. The system change plays to Shakir’s strengths. The talent is there, despite the lack of production from the incumbent. This team needs a true number two option, and the signs are pointing toward Shakir.
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