The public is favoring these three player props for Thursday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns.
- Broncos tight end Noah Fant to score a touchdown at any time (+230).
- Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton to record 50 or more receiving yards (-250).
- Broncos running back Melvin Gordon to record 50 or more rushing yards (-105)
(Odds and data according to PointsBet)
For reference, Colorado is a state that has legalized sports betting. Ohio has not yet done so.
As a result, the props skew toward the Broncos.
Another note is that the Browns will be without Baker Mayfield, who received surgery on his torn left labrum earlier this week. That means props on Browns' skill position players are noticeably harder to predict.
Let's start with the most popular prop-bet for Thursday.
Noah Fant To Score TD
Fant has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his 37 career games for a rate of about 24%.
That implies the odds should be about +310, which gives PointsBet's odds roughly 74% of raw value — if you solely use that historical precedent.
Of course, this prop is incredibly volatile and isn't really privy to unilateral statistical analysis.
Another angle: The tight end has scored at least one touchdown in three of his six games this year — a more recent sample size under his current quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who signed this past offseason.
In 2019 and 2020, Fant had a rotating drawer of Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien as his QB.
And, due to COVID last season, one of his quarterbacks for a game was a non-professional, Kendall Hinton.
So, for a more relevant analysis, his 50% rate this season would imply — loosely, I might add — odds of +100 that he catches a touchdown.
His current line at +230 imply his odds to fulfill this prop are just about 30%.
Courtland Sutton: 50 or More Receiving Yards
For the second-most popular prop, Sutton has put up at least 50 receiving yards in 23 out of his 39 career games. That's a 59% rate, which would imply the odds should be somewhere around -145.
If you only count this season, the implied odds should be somewhere around +100. Sutton has achieved the prop in three of his six games so far.
Melvin Gordon: 50 or More Rushing Yards
The third-most popular prop bet involves Gordon.
Gordon was limited in practice this week but fully participated in walkthroughs on Tuesday.
Tread lightly with this particular line. Gordon has been injured the past two weeks with a hip problem. He's listed as questionable.
Still, the past few weeks, Gordon has fought through the injury and has averaged a similar volume of touches. If he suits up, expect his looks to remain relatively the same as they've been all season.
The running back has played about 50% of the total offensive snaps so far.
As far as historical data goes: as a member of the Broncos, Gordon has put up at least 50 rushing yards during 14 of his 22 games, which implies raw odds of about 64%.
That would mean the betting odds should be around -180, if you rely on that specific data set.
This season, Gordon has converted the prop 50% of the time, which implies about +100 odds. He's also averaging 55.3 rushing yards per game.
With Mayfield's injury, there's a distinct possibility the Broncos play with the lead in the second half, which would necessitate even more running plays than they normally call.
But again, this prop is all dependent on Gordon suiting up. It's hard to say how much the injury has been bothering him, especially on a short week.
My money is on him gutting it out this game. I'd take this value for half a betting unit at its current price.
For reference, DraftKings currently lists this prop at a better line: 39.5 yards with -115 odds.
