Monday Night Football is a tough game to read. Is Justin Herbert fully healthy? What is going on with Denver's offense?
Another way to target this game is in the player props market, and I’d recommend using PrizePicks.
PrizePicks app allows you to parlay NFL player props in 30 states, including states where online sports betting action is unavailable.
Read on for my two favorite plays for Broncos vs. Chargers.
Broncos +4 | Chargers -4
Joshua Kelley
Over/Under 18.5 Rushing Yards
Joshua Kelley might be getting some more action in Los Angeles' offense.
His snap count nearly doubled from Week 4 to Week 5, accumulating nearly 40% of snaps. He picked up a whopping 10 carries against Cleveland and broke out for 49 rushing yards.
Kelley looked good, and the Chargers coaching staff looks like they are taking notice.
#Chargers OC Joe Lombardi on if RB Joshua Kelley has earned more playing time: “I think so. He feels like he is the hot hand. We’ll keep along that path, I think.”
— Nick Cothrel (@NickCothrel) October 14, 2022
Obviously, Kelley will still split carries with Austin Ekeler — but I don’t foresee that as a problem for two reasons.
First, Kelley cashed over 18.5 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2 with way fewer carries than we project him for now.
Second, we shouldn’t worry about Denver’s rush defense. The Broncos rely on an uber-talented secondary and rank second in pass defense DVOA. But they have been exploited by the run with a league average rush defense DVOA and rush EPA per play allowed.
Brandon Staley is an analytics-forward coach who should know these numbers and head to the ground more often, giving both Ekeler and Kelley more opportunities — especially with top receiver Keenan Allen still sidelined.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool shows value on Kelley and projects him for a whopping 28 rushing yards.
Pick: Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Russell Wilson
Over/Under 13.5 Rushing Yards
Russell Wilson looks terrible. He’s 26th among quarterbacks in the composite of EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected). He’s 31st in quarterback success rate. Meanwhile, Geno Smith is making Pete Carroll look like a genius over in Seattle.
Wilson’s inability to throw the ball has led to more rushing attempts. After scrambling just three total times in Weeks 1 and 2, Wilson has accumulated 14 rushing attempts in the last three games.
That’s naturally led to more rushing yards. Wilson has easily cashed this number in three straight games, picking up 22 yards against Indianapolis and 29 against Las Vegas.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him to go over once again, marking him for 15 rushing yards.
The Chargers blitz at a top-five rate, which should lead to extra scrambling opportunities for Wilson. I see no reason to fade the Action Labs projections, which always give us good value.
Pick: Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
