The biggest storyline so far on this NFL Sunday is the forecast for this afternoon's Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup. Three to seven inches of snow are expected at Arrowhead Stadium, including winds touching 10 mph.
Snow and wind should have some effect on scoring, but the Broncos vs. Chiefs weather forecast isn't the only reason to target this over/under.
In addition to the expected weather conditions in Kansas City, historical betting data also points to value on this total.
Odds as of Sunday at 10 a.m. ET and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Using our Action Pro Systems, let's analyze another reason to target the Broncos vs. Chiefs over/under, including an angle with a 62.6% win rate since 2005.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under Betting Pick
In late-season games with higher totals (defined as 45-60) between divisional opponents, unders are 189-113-3 (62.6%) since 2005.
This makes sense, as teams in the same division play twice each season, resulting in more familiarity between opponents — specifically from a defensive standpoint.
The under for today's Broncos vs. Chiefs game is offering value even if optimal weather conditions were expected. But as we know, snow and wind should make scoring even more difficult, providing multiple reasons to project this matchup landing under the closing total.
Action Pro System Pick: Broncos-Chiefs Under 44.5
