Our Thanksgiving parlay was close thanks to our script, but we were a little too aggressive in our trust of the Saints in the second half. Now, we head back to covering the Sunday Night Football games, and we have a big one as the Chiefs and Broncos fight for the AFC West lead.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
Both of these teams have been a bit of a roller coaster ride this season. The Chiefs started this season with big expectations, then they looked rough in a few losses but are now on a four-game winning steak. As for the Broncos, they opened the year hot, winning three straight, but they would lose their next four before hitting their stride and winning three of their past four.
Kansas City’s recent run of success has mostly come thanks to the success of its defense. During their four-game win streak, the Chiefs have scored over 20 just once and have three of their four worst yardage totals of the year. Denver’s tough defense is not one you want to face if your offense is struggling.
Just like the Chiefs, Denver’s recent success comes largely thanks to their defense finding their groove. In each of Denver’s last three wins, they have forced multiple turnovers and held opposing offenses under 300 yards.
When this team can cover on the backend, they win, plain and simple. The Broncos are 0-5 when PFF grades them under 61 in coverage and 6-0 when above. Against the Chiefs' explosive playmakers, that same trend may continue as any small break in coverage could be a touchdown for Kansas City.
In this matchup, Kansas City will once again see the defensive scheme that has given them fits all year. Against the Raiders and Cowboys, they got a break because those teams typically run single-high safety looks. We will see if the bye was enough time for the Chiefs to make adjustments to combat the two-deep safety looks.
As for Denver, they face the same question pretty much each week–which version of their offense will show up? When their offense can get going early, this defense has smothered teams. Per pro football reference, when Denver is leading, they allow a 65.5 passer rating, have 17 of their 27 sacks and have nine of their 10 interceptions.
It is hard to trust either team in this matchup given the high highs and low lows we have seen. Fortunately, for our parlay, we can focus on what these teams both have shown they can do well, and that is play defense. Let’s dig into the props we are taking for our parlay now.
The Parlay (+950)
- Denver Broncos +10.5 (-160)
- Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Teddy Bridgewater Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 3.5 Total Field Goals (+110)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Broncos vs. Chiefs
Prop 1: Denver Broncos +10.5 (-160)
This game looks set to be driven by the defenses. Denver plays the defensive style that has given the Chiefs the most trouble this year. This involves playing two deep safeties and forcing Patrick Mahomes to methodically march down the field. That style of offense bleeds the clock and keeps games lower scoring.
Denver will keep its preferred balance of run/pass split since things will not be out of hand, and they will stay within a score. Buy up from the spread of 9.5 to 10.5 to give us that little extra cushion of Denver losing by a touchdown and a field goal.
Prop 2: Patrick Mahomes Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-115)
As the adage goes, “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it." During their four-game win streak, Mahomes has come in under this mark three times. The only time he didn’t was in the massacre of the Raiders, but they had broken from what works against the Chiefs.
With the Broncos looking to force the Chiefs to play that conservative style, the big plays that can wreck a prop like this won’t be there. Mahomes should look to do what he has done recently which is just protect the ball, play efficiently and trust that the defense will do its part.
Prop 3: Teddy Bridgewater Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This is nearly a copy and paste from the Mahomes prop above. The only difference is the Broncos' version of the underneath throws is handing the ball off. Melvin Gordon will miss this game, but Javonte Williams has shown he deserves a higher workload with 4.9 yards per carry.
Essentially, Bridgewater is the captain of a ship with an excellent crew, and his job is to avoid an iceberg. Even last week, Bridgewater only threw 18 passes for 129 yards. We can trust Denver to continue running the ball and believe in their defense while only asking Bridgewater to step in when necessary.
Prop 4: Over 3.5 Total Field Goals (+110)
“If both quarterbacks aren’t throwing for many yards, how are there going to be so many field goals?” is a fair question to ask. The simple answer is that both teams should find success on the ground. The Chiefs rank 28th yards allowed per carry, and the Broncos rank 21st. We stayed away from running back props though because injuries (Gordon being out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning to full health) leave questions about how the teams will split carries.
Add in that the Broncos are top-10 at stopping teams in the red zone while being 26th at scoring themselves, and neither team likely succeeds as they approach the goal line. This was our swing back that made our parlay go from good odds to great odds, and I have a lot of faith in it.
That’s our four-leg parlay for SNF. Hopefully, we can find a big win and get a little extra cash just in time to blow it on Christmas presents!
