We're going below two totals on PrizePicks tonight for Broncos vs. Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. Use the PrizePicks Quickslips below to be directed straight to the app so you can make your pick.
Kadarius Toney
Less Than 29.5 Receiving Yards
Toney has registered more than 29.5 receiving yards just once this season, and there are a few reasons to believe that total is still too high.
Toney’s average depth of target this season is just 2.3 yards, which means he’s being targeted primarily around the line of scrimmage. He’s also averaging just 5.93 yards per reception.
Last week against the Giants, Toney played a season-high 25 snaps, which was 38% of the Chiefs’ offensive plays. He was targeted six times and got five catches. He still only got 26 receiving yards.
One potential reason for Toney’s increased role last week was the absence of Travis Kelce for parts of the game. Kelce has gotten most of his work this season close to the line of scrimmage, as Toney usually does. If the Chiefs’ star TE is in for a reduced role, we could see Toney’s workload go up. There’s no reason to believe that will be the case, though.
I’ll believe that Toney can go over this total consistently when I see it. Otherwise, I’m going to keep backing him to register fewer than 30 receiving yards.
Javonte Williams
Less Than 51.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
There are a few reasons that this makes sense for Williams.
Firstly, he missed Sunday’s loss to the Jets. Perhaps that absence was because of the short week and Denver wanted to give him extra time to rest, but it’s also hard to believe he’ll be 100% for this game.
Secondly, there’s more competition for Williams in the Broncos backfield. Over the past two weeks, Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging 8.8 yards per carry on 16 totes, and he also has six catches for 53 yards and two touchdowns in the passing game. That also doesn’t take into account veteran Samaje Perine, who played 60% of snaps on Sunday.
Williams has gone over this total in the three full games he’s played this season, but he played at least 42% of snaps in all of those games. It’s definitely possible he jumps right back into a similar role, but he hasn’t been anywhere near as efficient as McLaughlin this season and Perine is the Broncos’ best pass blocker.
This could blow up in my face if Williams returns to playing more than 40% of snaps, which he did in the first three weeks, but it feels like there are more paths to him going below this total this week than above it.
