Week 5 Thursday Night Football gives us an intriguing matchup that should be defined on the defensive end of the field.
The Broncos vs. Colts matchup was dealt a big offensive blow when Jonathan Taylor was announced as out with an ankle injury.
But how much of a role in the game do oddsmakers believe Taylor's injury will really have, and what is the true expected value of the injury with regard to the odds?
Well, there isn't a consensus determination from the oddsmakers in terms of reacting to the news, or at least we haven't seen the Taylor injury play a defining role.
This spread has sat between 3 and 3.5 points throughout the past two days, fluctuating between the two numbers throughout Thursday as well.
The total, which briefly rose from the opening number of 43 to 43.5 and 44 has come down to 42, where it currently resides. However, the Taylor news didn't significantly impact that number, as it has hopped between 42.5 and 42 throughout late Wednesday and early Thursday.
In short, we're learning that the oddsmakers are attributing approximately a half a point to Taylor's value to the odds, if that.
According to the head of Action Network's predictive analytics team, Sean Koerner, that's about what you should expect from seasoned traders.
"Taylor's value to the spread is probably half a point," Koerner said, "but it also shouldn't move a number from 3 to 3.5."
That has held true from a majority of sportsbooks, as the number didn't see an initial jump following Taylor's injury.
Rather, it's likely that a number of factors have contributed to line movement today, as any NFL game sees in the lead-up to kickoff.
The Broncos and Colts will start their game at Empower Field at 8:15 p.m. ET.
