I'm already betting the under on the game total tonight, so let's add another under to my betting card as my Broncos vs. Saints prop.
Spencer Rattler struggled in the second half last week against the Buccaneers after a promising start to the game. The Saints need a win tonight but are without multiple key playmakers on offense, as well as their starting quarterback.
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Broncos vs. Saints Player Prop
I took Rattler's under on 188.5 passing yards in Week 6, but he ended up going way over with 243 yards. Could he do that again? Absolutely, but I think taking the under on his completions is the better way to go here.
A lot of Rattler's production came when the Saints were down multiple scores last week, and it took him 48 dropbacks to complete 22 passes against the Buccaneers. Ideally for the Saints, Rattler will not be dropping back 48 times tonight considering they'll be without wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, tight end Taysom Hill and multiple players on the offensive line. New Orleans should lean run-heavy here and lean on its defense.
When Rattler does drop back to pass, he could face a blitz a ton. The Broncos have blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL this season and generated the second-highest pressure rate.
A few things can happen when Rattler drops back to pass against the blitz/pressure that will prevent him from completing a pass.
1) He takes a sack. Rattler was sacked on 28% of pressures he faced last week, which is a very high rate and is usually a “QB stat” that can be pretty sticky. Anytime you get sacked, that wipes out a potential completion.
2) He can scramble and generate yards with his legs. Rattler only did this on 6% of his dropbacks last week, but I expect it to be a higher rate tonight, especially given the Broncos play man coverage at the second-highest rate. (I'm aware that Patrick Surtain II is out for the Broncos, but have you considered that Rattler will be throwing to the likes of Bub Means, Mason Tipton and Cedric Wilson?) It could prevent easier checkdowns to Alvin Kamara and force Rattler to run. Anytime he runs the ball, it takes away a potential completion.
3) He attempts a pass. Rattler's completion percentage took a huge hit when he faced a blitz/pressure last week. He'll certainly complete some passes but tends to be aggressive and push the ball downfield when facing pressure, lowering his expecting completion percentage.
I have Rattler completing around 17.5 passes tonight with around a 60% chance to stay under 18.5. Now, if the Saints end up down multiple scores again here, I do think there is a chance Spencer Rattler gets benched for Jake Haener. Do I think it’s a 100% chance? No. Do I even think it’s a 50% chance he gets benched? No, but it’s higher than 0% and I’m getting a 60% chance while projecting Rattler to play the entire game already. Any chance he does get benched in a pass-heavy, trailing game script would only add to the 60% win probability I’m giving out here.
