My strategy for Monday Night Football between the Broncos and Seahawks is to create a correlated single-game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are five legs in total and I break down each one below. This is largely for entertainment purposes so please bet responsibility.
Melvin Gordon
25+ Rushing Yards
If the Broncos live up to their billing as heavy 6.5-point favorites, a run-heavy, second-half game script could be in order and benefit Melvin Gordon. While Javonte Williams is seen as the lead back, head coach Nathaniel Hackett said he’d run with the “hot hand” – think AJ Dillon/Aaron Jones from Hackett’s days as the Packers’ offensive coordinator.
Gordon’s rushing attempts are set at 9.5 with a juiced over (-148). At bare minimum, he’d need 2.5 yards per carry, and Seattle allowed 3.8 last season.
Javonte Williams
40+ Rushing Yards
While he’s expected to share the load with Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams should still get most of the work. The aforementioned potential for a positive running game script for the Broncos in the second half also bodes well for Williams. I like him to hit at least 40 rushing yards.
Courtland Sutton
40+ Receiving Yards
Last season, Courtland Sutton notched 776 receiving yards while playing with the quarterback duo of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. However, he had 1,509 unrealized last season (per FTN Network), so positive regression could be in order. Upgrading to Russell Wilson at quarterback obviously doesn’t hurt either.
Sutton faces a Seahawks team that has the 30th-ranked secondary in the league entering 2022. Sutton’s yards prop moved up five percent over the past week so sharp money is on the over.
Rashaad Penny
50+ Rushing Yards
The thinking here is simple: Rashaad Penny has no real competition with rookie Kenneth Walker unlikely to play. Head coach Pete Carroll is a big run guy, with a 43.3% rushing percentage on offensive plays last season, which ranked 14th in the league.
When healthy, Penny is an explosive runner. He ranked third among all running backs in 20-plus-yard rushing plays in 2021. He achieved this in 11 of 119 attempts, boiling down the likelihood of it happening in one of nine attempts.
Denver
Moneyline
Don't overthink it. It’s a revitalized Broncos offense led by Russell Wilson against the Seahawks helmed by Geno Smith. The spread opened at -3.5 for the Broncos on May 12; that has since moved to -6.5. Wilson has won three straight Week 1 games.
The Parlay (+322, FanDuel)
- Melvin Gordon 25+ Rushing Yards
- Javonte Williams 40+ Rushing Yards
- Courtland Sutton 40+ Receiving Yards
- Rashaad Penny 50+ Rushing Yards
- Broncos Moneyline
