NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Now let’s take a look at three props with grades of at least 7 that are worth considering for Monday Night Football between the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers.
We'll focus on Nick Chubb's rushing yards, Marquise Goodwin's receiving yards and Dante Pettis' receptions.
Browns vs. 49ers Prop Bets
49ers WR Marquise Goodwin
THE PICK: Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Goodwin is listed as the No. 1 WR, but the 49ers employ one of the deeper rotations at the position. No one at the position sees more more playing time than Goodwin, but he’s still been on the field for just 63.9% of the team’s offensive snaps this season.
More importantly, he hasn’t been a featured part of their offense when they’ve thrown the ball. He owns just a 9.4% target share, which is tied with Richie James and only slightly ahead of Kendrick Bourne and Dante Pettis. Goodwin logged three or fewer targets in each of the first three weeks, including just two in Week 3.
Goodwin is a big-play WR — he’s averaged 17.4 yards per reception as a member of the 49ers — but it’s going to be tough for him to hit the over given his current volume. I like the under up to -125.
Browns RB Nick Chubb
THE PICK: Under 88.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Chubb is coming off a monster game in Week 4, racking up 165 yards on 20 carries against the Ravens. That said, he’ll see a big step up in class against the 49ers, who currently rank second overall in Football Outsider’s DVOA, including No. 6 in rush defense.
This sets up as a huge mismatch in the trenches in particular. The Browns offensive line has been a weakness this season, ranking 21st in run blocking, while the 49ers defensive line has been one of the best in football. They’re currently allowing just 3.33 yards per carry, and they also rank fifth in stuff rate.
The game script also sets up as a potential negative for Chubb. The Browns are 5-point underdogs as of writing (see live odds here), so they might not be able to run as much as they’d ultimately like to.
This prop is already juiced up to -130, but I still think it offers value. I wouldn’t play it at more than -140 though.
49ers WR Dante Pettis
THE PICK: Over two receptions (+120)
A lot has been made of Pettis’ role with the 49ers this season. He was expected to operate as their No. 1 option, but the coaching staff was very tough on him during the preseason. He started the year by playing just two total snaps in Week 1, which ranked just fifth on the team.
That said, he has started working his way back into the good graces of the offense. He played 49% of snaps in Week 2 and 42% of snaps in Week 3. That’s still obviously far from ideal, but it puts him in range with the other top options on the team. He also led all 49ers WRs with five targets last week.
This also sets up as a nice matchup. Both of Browns' top cornerbacks missed practice all week, which makes them very questionable to suit up tonight. If both are forced to sit out tonight’s contest, Pettis should have the advantage against whoever he lines up against when he’s on the field.
Two catches is a pretty low bar to clear for a WR in today’s NFL. I like the idea of grabbing this prop at better than even money.
