Browns at 49ers Betting Odds & Picks
- Spread: 49ers -5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds as of Sunday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The 49ers have had tons of time to prep for this Monday Night Football showdown, coming out of their bye with a still-unblemished record. Now they host the Browns, who are coming off a big divisional win over the Ravens after a somewhat disappointing start to the season.
The market has moved the Niners from 4- to 5-point favorites. But which team do our experts think has the edge?
Our staff breaks down the most important betting angles of this primetime matchup, complete with Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick.
Monday Night Football Injury Report
Which team is healthier? 49ers
The 49ers are in relatively good shape, but do have a few noteworthy injuries.
Tevin Coleman (ankle) could potentially make his return after missing the last few weeks, but there's no guarantee on his workload. Next is DE Dee Ford (knee/quad), who hasn’t been able to practice much this week — he's one of Pro Football Focus' highest rated defenders.
The Browns' defense is still severely banged up. Starting CBs Greedy Williams (hamstring) and Denzel Ward (hamstring) have both missed practice all week and aren't expected to play. S Morgan Burnett (quad) is also listed as questionable, but he’s at least been able to practice in a limited fashion. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Sunday. See our Injury Report for status updates.
Biggest Mismatch
49ers Defensive Line vs. Browns Offensive Line
The 49ers have three edge defenders ranked in PFF's top 20 — Ronald Blair is 10th, Ford is 17th and Arik Armstead is 20th — plus No. 2 overall pick Nick Bosa, who ranks 27th in pass rushing and has four QB hits on the season.
Browns left tackle Greg Robinson has been middling, ranking 24h among tackles in PFF’s grades, but the real weakness is on the right tackle, where Chris Hubbard ranks 46th among tackles and Eric Kush ranks 65th among guards.
In an opposite-coast road game against a San Francisco team fresh off a bye, the Browns' O-line could struggle to get movement against a deep, rested 49ers' D-line. — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: 49ers -4
- Projected Total: 48
The 49ers are quietly turning out to be one of the biggest surprises of 2019. Now 3-0 with a +42 point differential, they're coming off of a bye while the Browns are coming off a convincing Week 4 win on the road in Baltimore.
Earlier in the week I mentioned I was leaning 49ers -3.5 as sharps were backing them. But once pros realized the line wasn't coming down, they started hammering it, so the value is probably gone.
This is a no bet for me. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The 49ers are undefeated and have covered the spread on average by 12.7 points per game this season.
Teams that make it look easy are often good candidates to bet against, and oddsmakers know bettors will want to back teams that consistently cover and thus will inflate their lines. One contrarian approach is to fade teams that have covered on average by five or more points per game after the first month of the season.
Using this philosophy, we've built a Pro System that's gone 308-233-16 (57%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor following this strategy would've returned a profit of $5,470.
The Browns at anything above +3.5 are a match for this system. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Pick
Ewing: Browns +5
Are we sure the 49ers are good? Yes, they're undefeated, but that could be a product of playing teams that are a combined 3-12.
The Niners have jumped out to a fast start but contrarian bettors can gain an edge wagering against such teams. According to our data at Bet Labs, it's been profitable to bet against teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before but have a winning record and are favored in the first half of the season like San Francisco.
The Niners' offense has been inconsistent and turnovers have been an issue as Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown four interceptions. Those kind of mistakes could sink bettors against an improving Browns team.
I'm taking the Browns plus the points and sprinkling a little on the moneyline.
