Following the conclusion of Week 4, there was disagreement around the market as sportsbooks began releasing opening lines for tonight's Browns-49ers matchup on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
That's certainly not out of the ordinary, as books open lines at differing times and with differing limits. It's especially understandable in a game featuring an unexpected undefeated team and another that entered 2019 with sky-high expectations.
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Opening spreads ranged from San Francisco -3.5 to -5, but almost immediately the market consensus was bet down to the lower end of that spectrum. On Sunday night into Monday, just about every book was listed at 3.5, and many even dipped down to the key number of 3.
That was when sharps decided it was time to fire.
Since that point, sharp action — confirmed by two Sports Insights Bet Signals — has pushed the line up toward where some of those bolder opening lines already sat. The most recent signal came yesterday at -4.5 to get the Niners back to 5-point favorites. That movement has come despite San Fran attracting just 38% of bettors.
Also pointing toward a professional backing of the home team has been the discrepancy between the percentage of bets and actual money. That 38% backing has generated 47% of dollars being wagered, meaning bigger bettors — ones more likely to be sharps — are laying the points.
As the line has now settled in a "dead zone" between more important numbers (4 and 6), it should be able to move somewhat freely if any additional signs of convincing action hit this spread. A full-point move to one of those key numbers would, however, be far more telling of professional activity.
