Monday Night Football Week 13 is here, as the Cleveland Browns (3-8) take on the Denver Broncos (7-5). Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and Youtube TV.
Let's get to my Browns vs. Broncos props and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Browns vs. Broncos Player Props
- Jerry Jeudy Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Bo Nix Under 0.5 Interceptions (-130, DraftKings)
- Nick Chubb Over 1.5 Receptions (+180, DraftKings)
- Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown (+165, FanDuel)
Jerry Jeudy Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
We have a good old-fashioned revenge game ahead of us for Jerry Jeudy, who is going back to his former home in Denver. He’s had a good season and is on track to be just shy of 1,000 receiving yards. That said, he’s been hugely helped by Jameis Winston taking the job at quarterback.
In seven starts with Deshaun Watson throwing the ball, Jeudy managed to exceed Monday’s total of 63.5 receiving yards just twice. In four games with Winston at quarterback, he’s managed to hit that mark in every single one. Winston trusts him and you can see that by the fact he’s had an average of nine targets per game.
Jeudy has averaged 94.7 yards per game with Winston and should cover 63.5 here.
Bo Nix Under 0.5 Interceptions (-130)
When Bo Nix threw four interceptions in the opening two games of his NFL career without even throwing a touchdown pass, there were questions over whether the Broncos made a mistake taking him 12th overall. However, he’s improving with each and every game, and in particular his ball security.
Nix followed up his rough first two games by giving up just two picks in the next 10 games. That should give us a lot of confidence is taking the under on Nix's interceptions, especially given that the Browns’ defense has had just two interceptions all year, the second least in the NFL.
Nick Chubb Over 1.5 Receptions (+180)
This is a risky one, but at +180 you have to believe the risk is worth the reward. We’re taking Nick Chubb to have over 1.5 receptions against the Broncos. The concern is that he’s failed to do that at all since returning in Week 7. In fact, thanks in large part to injury, the last time he had two or more receptions was in Week 1 of last season.
So, why are we betting it? The Browns have been targeting him; he’s had two or more targets in two of five games since returning. Now they face a Broncos team that is good against the run, ranking sixth best, but does have a weakness against running backs in the passing game. They’re sixth in receiving yards to RBs, tied for third in receiving touchdowns to RBs, and third in receptions to RBs, averaging 5.7 per game. This should be an area that the Browns look to take advantage of.
Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Finally, we’re going to double down on Chubb and back the veteran running back to find the end zone. He’s still working his way back from that horrific injury, but the signs are promising. He’s scored three times since his return, two of which were last week against a very good Steelers defense.
The reason for optimism is his increasable usage. Chubb has had double-digit carries in every game since returning and hit 20 in the last game. The Browns are really riding him now and he’s a true bellcow. Given that usage, the odds of +165 look very generous.
