Dolphins vs Browns Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +143 |
The Browns are coming off of the bye week and are in a spot where they really need a win to stay in the AFC playoff hunt until Deshaun Watson steps in at QB in Week 13.
The Dolphins are a fascinating team. They have started three different QBs this season, have a first-year head coach and the offensive player of the year favorite at WR, and they're in the top third of the Super Bowl odds list. With all of that said, they sit in third place in the AFC East.
This matchup features two inconsistent teams that could really use a win right now. The game will come down to which team can be at its best and come up with the best game plan to exploit the opponent's weaknesses.
Dolphins vs Browns Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Dolphins and Browns match up statistically:
Dolphins vs. Browns DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 5 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 31 | |
| Rush DVOA | 2 | 7 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 24 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 18 | |
| Rush DVOA | 21 | 30 | |
Some people would be surprised to know that the Browns actually rank higher in overall DVOA than the Dolphins. Of course, the games without Tua Tagovailoa are weighing that number down for the Dolphins, but Jacoby Brissett has done a good job complementing the Browns' elite rushing attack.
The Dolphins have actually been pretty competitive against the run this season but are 31st in defensive pass DVOA. I think Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski will have his team really well prepared to exploit that following the bye week. Brissett had his best game of the season against the Bengals before the bye, and WR Amari Cooper is having a great season.
Despite the Dolphins' success against the rush, this Browns run game is different from any other in the league. Last week, we saw Justin Fields put on a record-breaking performance with 178 rush yards against the Dolphins. The Jets rushed for 135 yards against them a few weeks ago.
I think Miami's rush defense numbers are inflated because other teams know the easiest way to beat them is through the air. In reality, the Dolphins are 19th in NFL in yards per rush attempt allowed when teams do decide to run the ball.
The Dolphins are entirely one-dimensional on offense. They rank 21st in rush DVOA but lead the league in pass DVOA. Meanwhile, Cleveland has been deficient on defense but has been better against the pass than the run. Luckily, the Dolphins can't run the ball and don't really want to. That makes things much easier for the Browns to game plan for this offense, especially with extra time to prep.
If the game does come down to a key play or two, the Dolphins rank a dead-last 32nd in special teams DVOA. The Browns have the superior kicker and the better special teams coverage. That could be the key in a close game like this.
Betting Picks
I don't doubt the Dolphins will hit a few explosive plays, but I think, with the extra prep time, the Browns will be able to limit those and contain this Dolphins offense.
The Browns should be able to exploit this Dolphins secondary, and once they do and the Dolphins are forced to respect the passing game, they can churn Chubb and Hunt in the second half and wear the Dolphins' defense down.
I think this game could easily come down to a field goal on either side.
Other than one outlier, the Browns' losses this season have come by one, three, two and three. Other than Week 1, every Dolphins win has been by one score.
That makes the Browns getting more a field goal or more a great number to grab.
Pick: Browns +3.5 | Bet to Browns +3 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
