Browns vs. Falcons Odds
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
The Browns and Falcons will face off Sunday in what I consider a true coin flip game. Both of these teams could really use a win and both have matchup edges that could exploit their opponent's weaknesses.
Of the six games these teams have combined to play this season, five have been settled by four points or less. Both teams have seemingly played up and down to their competition, which makes it exciting to see them face each other. I think we will learn a lot about these teams if one of them can get a decisive victory here.
This total is one of the highest of the weekend despite both teams' proclivity to run the football. That has people somewhat split on what side of the total to target, but I think there are clear matchup disparities that lend value to one side of the total.
Browns vs. Falcons Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Browns and Falcons match up statistically:
Browns vs. Falcons DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 6 | 24 | |
| Rush DVOA | 2 | 27 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 8 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 9 | 21 | |
| Rush DVOA | 8 | 26 | |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4b358o6plw
These are two of the best offenses in football so far this season. The Browns rank third in offensive DVOA and the Falcons are eighth. In addition to ranking high in total rushing from a yardage perspective, both teams are also efficient and rank in the top-10 in both passing and rushing DVOA.
Defensively, both of these teams struggle stopping the rush. The Browns and Falcons rank 26th and 27 in defensive rush DVOA. Therefore, there are two ways these coaches can approach this game.
One option is they will simply continue to get shredded on the ground and the combos of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson will run wild.
The second option is they realize this weakness and sell out to stop the run. If that's the case, I think both offensive play callers and quarterbacks can take advantage.
We saw Jacoby Brissett shred the Jets secondary a couple of weeks ago, and we saw that the Falcons were susceptible to giving up big pass plays against Geno Smith last week. On the other side, Mariota's numbers won't blow you away, but he has been extremely efficient when asked to pass. The Falcons' offense ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. That means when Mariota is asked to throw, he is picking up yards in bunches.
I think the final key is what happens in the red zone. I've told you why both teams should move the ball with ease, but that doesn't always result in points. The Falcons and Browns rank 23rd and 25th in defensive red zone touchdown percentage. That means both defenses are giving up a number of touchdowns when opposing offenses get in the red zone.
Betting Picks
I think both of these teams have underrated offenses and have had underrated quarterback play so far this season. The balanced attack that both teams bring will make it difficult for the opposing staff to slow down the opposition.
I'm going with the over here because I think both offenses will be able to move the ball up and down the field and turn those long drives into touchdowns. The strong rushing attacks should be able to exploit the weaknesses of opposing defenses.
I like the current number of 47 or 47.5 because a 28-20 or 27-21 game gets you to the window. However, I would play to 48.5 as I see this being more of a 28-21, or 28-24 type of game. It should be another one-possession game for both of these teams.
Bet Over 47.5 at FanDuel | Play to 48.5
