Browns vs Jets Player Prop: Tyler Conklin
The last Thursday Night game of the season will see the New York Jets taking on Joe Flacco and the Browns in The Land. This season has been a forgettable one for Gang Green, but tonight's game could be an excellent opportunity for their dependable player, Tyler Conklin.
In their most recent game, the Jets were in a rare leading script under QB Trevor Siemian. Despite that, Conklin still saw production, with seven targets, hauling four receptions. He also ran on 83% of the snaps, marking his highest since Week 2. Before this game, he has caught at least four receptions in five of his last seven games.
As we approach the upcoming game, Conklin is poised to take on a crucial role on the team, given TE Jeremy Ruckert's absence due to a concussion and TE C.J. Uzomah's continued placement on the injured reserve. Cleveland's CBs, Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward, have been doing an outstanding job defending against top opposing threats, and now they will face off against WR Garrett Wilson. It's worth noting that the Browns currently rank first in defensive DVOA against WR1s, a testament to their impressive teamwork.
As a result, Conklin should get some additional looks from his matchup. S Grant Delpit's injury has been a big blow, but things haven't been the same without LB Anthony Walker. Since Week 14, three straight tight ends have exceeded this prop, including Evan Engram (11 receptions), Cole Kmet (5 receptions), and Dalton Schultz (8 receptions).
With a low 4.10 average depth-of-target (in Week 16), Conklin looks to get most of his production in short-yardage situations, likely in a trailing game script. The Browns generate pressure at the sixth-highest rate and run single high coverage at the eighth-highest rate over the last six weeks (FantasyPoints Data). Conklin's 0.44 TPRR with Trevor Siemian in the coverage ranks just below Breece Hall on the team and should benefit.
Facing constant pressure all night, Siemian will struggle to get separation, and if all the targets aren't going via dump offs to Breece Hall, there's a good chance of Conklin going over his receptions prop.
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