My strategy for Monday Night Football between the Browns and Steelers is to create a correlated same game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are four legs in total (available via DraftKings) in this Browns vs. Steelers parlay, and I break down each one below.
Same game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so tread carefully. You can check out our expensive coverage of both Monday Night Football games here.
Nick Chubb
70+ Rushing Yards
Chubb's Week 1 performance was impressive as he racked up 106 rushing yards in a resounding win against the Bengals.
With Kareem Hunt no longer on the team, Chubb should be utilized a good amount throughout the season, health permitting. Overall, Chubb has an impressive average of 90.6 rushing yards over his last 18 games — he's hit 70+ yards rushing in 14 of those.
Without all-pro Cameron Heyward, the Steelers will be at a disadvantage. Heyward has a superb rush stoppage rate of 10.4%, which ranks 18th amongst 300 qualified players.
In Week 1, the Steelers let Christian McCafrey run wild to the tune of 152 yards.
Elijah Moore
30+ Receiving Yards
Moore, who had three receptions for 43 yards in his Browns debut, looks like he has good chemistry with Deshaun Watson.
Amari Cooper could suit up for this game, but given that he's dealing with a groin injury, it's possible he serves in more of a decoy role which would give Moore plenty of opportunities to rack up targets.
The Steelers notably allowed 129 yards and two touchdowns to Brandon Aiyuk last week.
Kenny Pickett
Under 249.5 Passing Yards
Kenny Pickett has averaged 214.1 passing yards in 12 complete games as pro and has failed to go over this number nine times.
The Browns present a challenge for Pickett, as they allowed just 196.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2022, which was the fifth lowest in the league.
Over the offseason, Cleveland further invested in its defense by signing pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith and safety Juan Thornhill. The early results are good: the Browns secondary is currently ranked eighth in Pro Football Focus' grading system.
Calvin Austin III
2+ Receptions
The 2022 fourth-round pick showcased his skills in the preseason and it appears that he's carried it over to the regular season. In Week 1, Austin caught all six of his targets for 37 yards.
He rose to the occasion and became Pittsburgh's top receiver after Diontae Johnson left the game with an injury. Of all Steelers receivers, Austin had the lowest average target depth (3.5 yards), indicating that Pickett may rely on him to combat the pressure the Browns will generate.
This correlates well with my game theory of Pickett struggling to move the ball down field. Sportsbooks set Austin's reception line juiced at over 2.5, signaling good value at one catch fewer.
Browns vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay (+225 at DraftKings)
- Nick Chubb 70+ Rushing Yards (-240)
- Elijah Moore 30+ Receiving Yards (-235)
- Kenny Pickett under 249.5 Passing Yards (-350)
- Calvin Austin 2+ Receptions (-700)
