Texans vs Browns Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -106 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -114 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
The Texans made a long overdue quarterback change last week against the Dolphins, sending Davis Mills to the bench in favor of NFL journeyman Kyle Allen. It didn't really matter on the scoreboard — the Dolphins won (and covered) 30-15 — but Houston showed plenty of fight in the second half and Allen finished with 215 yards and a touchdown.
You could argue this would be a letdown spot for the Browns after an emotional overtime win against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last week, and a date with the division rival Bengals next week.
However, Deshaun Watson will be making his season debut against his former team after a 12-week suspension.
Watson hasn't played an NFL game (excluding preseason) in 700 days, and it remains to be seen how he's going to look. I doubt the offense will change too much, as the Browns will still remain run heavy and flow through Nick Chubb as much as possible.
Let's break down how to find our Texans vs. Browns pick for NFL Week 13 below.
Texans vs. Browns Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Browns match up statistically:
Texans vs. Browns DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 4 | 27 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 25 | |
| Rush DVOA | 4 | 31 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 32 | 29 | |
| Pass DVOA | 30 | 27 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 32 | |
Jacoby Brissett had been very serviceable for the Browns this season, as Cleveland ranks fourth in offensive DVOA, including seventh in pass offense. Regardless of how the Browns decide to run their offense this week, they will undoubtedly have success, as this Texans defense is next level bad.
Houston ranks 31st in rush defensive DVOA and 25th against the pass, while allowing the second-most yards per carry and third-most yards per pass attempt in the league. Brutal.
Bet Cleveland vs. Houston at FanDuel
The good news for the Texans is that this Browns defense, despite having talent at every level, continues to struggle. Cleveland's defense ranks last in rush defense DVOA and 27th against the pass. It would be wise for Houston to keep feeding Dameon Pierce, though he hasn't had a ton of success over the past few weeks against the Commanders and Dolphins.
Allen, who spent a bit of time starting for both the Panthers and Commanders in the past, is likely an upgrade over Mills. Allen should be able to elevate the value of both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, who had almost been rendered useless by Mills' subpar play.
Chubb should have an absolute field day against this Texans front, as they've ceded the most rush attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Houston does bring pressure well and ranks ninth in the NFL in that department. However, pressure causes opposing quarterbacks to run and Watson is much more mobile than Brissett.
Betting Picks
The past few weeks have been difficult for Houston. The Texans faced four tough defenses — the Eagles, Giants, Commanders and Dolphins — and scored a combined 57 points in that stretch. However, they should have some success moving the ball this week, and this game could turn into a bit of a back-and-forth affair, especially since it's going to be played in the dome in Houston.
Cleveland should give Watson plenty of easy reads and rely quite a bit on Chubb in Watsons' first start in two years. It feels too easy to simply lay the points with the Browns here, as the Texans have shown fight when they fall behind.
Instead, we will attack the total.
I expect Cleveland to hit its implied team total of 27, meaning we need the Texans to get to 20, which I firmly believe is in their range of outcomes against this porous Browns defense.
Give me the over here.
Pick: Over 46.5 | Bet to 47 |
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