A hot 6-3 run to end the year vaulted the Texans to an AFC South Division title and earned them a home playoff game. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has elevated the Texans and is the runaway favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year Award.
The Texans' offense will be tested by the Browns’ defense, which ranks first in yards per drive allowed and second in points per drive allowed. Cleveland relied on its defense for most of the season, but the Browns' offense has also been a force since adding Joe Flacco.
With the stage set, let’s build our Browns vs. Texans same game parlay.
Browns vs. Texans Same Game Parlay (+950 via DraftKings):
- Joe Flacco Over 37.5 Passing Attempts
- Browns -2.5
- Under 44.5
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Joe Flacco Over 37.5 Passing Attempts
Browns vs. Texans | 4:30 p.m. ET
In the first matchup between these teams, the Texans completely shut down the Browns' ground game. Cleveland’s starting two running backs, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, combined for 36 yards on 22 carries. Suppressing opposing run games has been the Texans' specialty all season. In fact, Houston ranks second in yards allowed per rush.
While Houston can smother opposing rushing games, but has been gutted through the air. Houston allowed the sixth-most net yards per pass in the NFL and Cleveland has shown no hesitancy in trusting Flacco with the ball.
In four of Flacco’s five starts, he’s thrown over 40 attempts. The only game that went under that mark was the game against the Jets, a blowout in favor of the Browns.
After seeing its ground game stuffed in the first matchup, Cleveland should come out with a pass-heavy scheme. That will play into the Texans' weakness and follow the script the Browns used during their win streak in December.
Browns -2.5
Browns vs. Texans | 4:30 p.m. ET
Cleveland has the perfect recipe to make a shocking playoff run. Similar to the Eli Manning-led Giants, Flacco’s Ravens and Nick Foles’ Eagles, Cleveland has an excellent defense with a top-of-the-line pass rush and a high-upside quarterback.
Flacco has the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage of quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks, per PFF. However, he also has the fourth-highest yards per attempt of those quarterbacks.
The question is whether Flacco can continue to play on the right side of variance, or if the Browns overcome any mistakes he makes. In future rounds, the Browns will need good luck on Flacco’s 50/50 balls. However, against Houston, Cleveland should be able to withstand a couple of mistakes. The weak point of the Cleveland defense has been stopping the run as the Browns rank 19th in yards allowed per carry. Unfortunately for Houston, this is the weak point of its offense, which ranks 29th in yards per carry.
Without ground support, Stroud will be facing one of the league’s best pass defenses. If Houston were at full strength, this would be closer. However, with a beat-up receiving core, it’s hard to imagine the Texans being overly productive. The only starting receiver not on the injury report is Nico Collins. He dominated last week, but that pass rush was much lighter than what Cleveland will bring and the Browns’ corners are better than those of the Colts.
Houston has done a great job establishing a culture and laying a foundation for the future, but it won’t be enough against the Browns.
Under 44.5
Browns vs. Texans | 4:30 p.m. ET
Neither team will be able to run the ball and the Texans are starting a rookie quarterback – albeit an excellent one – against a top-two defense. I am expecting little out of those three offensive segments.
The only thing remaining is the Browns’ passing attack. While I expect the Browns to throw frequently, I also feel they may play a bit more conservative once they get a lead. This, of course, is the playoffs and teams tend to lean toward avoiding mistakes, rather than trying to make hero plays.
