Browns vs Texans Player Props: Expert Picks for Wild Card Weekend
With prop markets released earlier than usual during the NFL playoffs, I'm getting a head start during the week for each game, starting with my Browns vs Texans player props. I have one pick for the game.
QB Joe Flacco
Flacco has taken the league by storm since he took over as Browns starter in Week 13, and he took a blowtorch to this Texans defense in Week 16 in the form of 368 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Browns have shifted their offensive approach to be a more pass-heavy team with Flacco. From Weeks 1-12, they ranked 24th in neutral pass rate and since Flacco took over in Week 13, they have ranked fourth.
The Texans have generated the fourth-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate. They put a ton of faith in their defensive line to generate pressure on Flacco without much help from extra rushers. That’s why it’s critical that Will Anderson Jr.’s ankle holds up this week. He was limited to just 12 pass rush snaps last week but was able to apply pressure on Gardner Minshew for 6 of them.
Recently acquired Derek Barnett is having the best stretch of his career and was also able to generate six pressures. It will be critical for the Texans to get pressure on Flacco, or else he will be able to pick them apart — like he did in Week 16.
I expect the public to be very interested in Joe Flacco’s overs, which is why I was shocked his passing yard prop opened around 260.5. It quickly got bet up to 270.5, which is right where I have it. It may sound crazy, but 270 is a fairly conservative projection for Flacco, who has cleared 300 in four of his last five starts. That's an unsustainable pace, but he hasn’t given us a reason to expect too much regression in the short term.
In this situation, I think the better plan would be to invest in Flacco through one of his pass catchers. We may be able to find more value that way, while also tapping into the upside Flacco gives this passing offense.
I’m hoping we see a Joe Flacco rushing prop offered this week. It should be in the 0.5-1.5 yard range. Talk about a way to spice up your Saturday afternoon!
RBs Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt
The Browns backfield has been a pain to project all season, but we have seen it stabilize in the second half of the season, with Ford typically getting 43% of the rush attempts, with Kareem Hunt typically getting 35% of the attempts. We have seen Pierre Strong get more involved lately, commanding an 11% rush share in Weeks 11-17. Strong is currently questionable with a back injury so if he’s unable to suit up, Ford and Hunt would pick up an extra couple of rushing attempts.
I’m currently a few yards lower than the rushing yards market on Ford and a few yards higher than Hunt. Considering Hunt missed Tuesday’s practice with a groin injury, this isn’t a situation I’m trying to lock in this early in the week. The Texans have a very good run defense and rank second in DVOA against the run.
If it looks like both Hunt and Strong will be closer to 100% for Saturday, I would be interested in coming in on Ford’s under.
WR Amari Cooper
Cooper erupted for 11/265/2 against the Texans in Week 16, but he has been dealing with a heel injury since then and missed Week 17 due to the injury and Week 18’s absence was likely due to the Browns resting starters with the AFC's No. 5 seed locked up.
It's a concern that Cooper sat out Tuesday’s practice, so this injury may still be a concern heading into Wild Card Weekend. I’m expecting the public to be all over his overs this week and his initial prop opened in the 84.5 range but has since dropped to 74.5 at most books, which is right around where I have it.
WR Elijah Moore
With Cooper still limited with his heel injury, as well as Cedric Tillman (concussion) and Marquise Goodwin (knee) also listed as questionable to open the week, Elijah Moore is someone whose prop we may need to lock in early this week.
Moore is a very talented year-three receiver who could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a Flacco-led offense. Flacco’s willingness to throw downfield has allowed Moore, who played with Flacco last season on the Jets, to see more downfield throws and allow him the opportunity to see more explosive targets.
Elijah Moore was fairly quiet over Flacco’s first four starts, only averaging 40 yards a game over a stretch Flacco was averaging 326 passing yards a game. However, Moore had seen the ninth-most air yards (410) over that stretch. For reference, the four other WRs who saw 400-409 air yards over the same stretch were averaging 78 yards a game.
I sounded the alarm on the buy-low window for Elijah Moore heading into the Browns' Thursday Night Football against the Jets and took his over 30.5 yards. He erupted for 5/61/1 before having to leave the game after taking a scary hit that resulted in a concussion. He was fully cleared from the concussion last week and played a few snaps in Cleveland's meaningless Week 18 game, so we can consider him 100% healthy heading into the playoffs.
I am shocked to see his prop at 29.5 at a few books and 32.5 at others. Given his upside and the fact that Cooper, Tillman and Goodwin are all banged up, I think his line should be closer to 38.5.
I’m giving Moore a 62% chance to clear this even if the other three Browns receivers all suit up at 100% health, which means there is likely even more value in locking this in now.
bet365 has over 29.5 at -110, while FanDuel is -114.
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TE David Njoku
Njoku was already having a career year, but handing the keys to the offense to Flacco has only made him even better.
Njoku just might be the best pass-catching TE in all of football right now. Similar to Moore, he’s one of the few healthy pass-catchers for the Browns right now.
Njoku's current market of 55.5 receiving yards is slightly higher than where I have his current projection. Considering the injuries in the Browns' receiving corps, though, it’s fair to add a handful of yards to Njoku’s prop right now. Therefore, I don’t see any reason to invest in Njoku’s props right now. If anything, we'll hope the Texans attempt to slow him and Cooper down while leaving Moore with open looks.
QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud is coming off of an amazing regular season where he led the Texans to their first postseason appearance since 2019. I knew his pinpoint accuracy would make the transition to the NFL a smooth one, but I was skeptical he would be able to go from throwing to one of the best WRs corps in CFB history in Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Texans' WR depth chart. One of the more remarkable things about his season is that he didn’t have all four of his top WRs (Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods and Noah Brown) healthy at the same time.
On paper, this is a brutal matchup against a Browns defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass. However, Cleveland has been beatable on the road, allowing 226 passing yards per game away from home (12th highest).
I was in line with his opening prop of 245.5 passing yards, but some books have dropped to 242.5 or even 239.5. It has been bouncing around in this range and I think will settle back in at 245.5. Regardless, it’s not a market I’m seeing a ton of value either way right now.
RB Devin Singletary
The Texans' RB depth chart has evolved quite a bit this year, but Singletary enters the playoffs as Houston's clear lead back. Here's how the backfield has developed throughout the season.:
- Weeks 1-8: Dameon Pierce was the clear lead back, especially on early downs, while Singletary was more of a change-of-pace back who saw slightly more work on passing downs.
- Weeks 9-11: Singletary was a true workhorse back while Pierce was out due to injury.
- Weeks 12-13: Things essentially returned to the Weeks 1-8 rotation.
- Weeks 14-18: Singletary became the true workhorse back, despite Pierce being fully healthy.
In fact, Singletary saw 85% of the Texans' rush attempts in Week 18 while Pierce failed to play a single offensive snap. Considering the must-win nature of Week 18’s game against the Colts, I'd imagine a similar rotation against the Browns given how predictable the Texans RB rotation has been at times this year.
As a result, I’m slightly higher than the market on Singletary’s rushing prop of 62.5. I have it closer to 68.5, despite the tougher matchup against the Browns.
I think the better way to invest in Singletary’s massive workload, may be to take Dameon Pierce’s under 9.5 rushing yards. I’m starting to see his market pop up in places and I think there's a chance it gets bet up into the low teens. It’s something I’ll be keeping my eye on this week.
WR Nico Collins
There are currently no receiving yardage props up for the Texans right now since Robert Woods and Noah Brown are both questionable after missing Week 18. Hopefully, we get clarity on both WRs by Friday and get props on players like Woods, Brown, John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson.
Depending on whether Woods and/or Brown are ruled out again this week, it’s a bit unclear as to which backup WR would benefit the most. Hutchinson was the clear direct replacement for Collins, while I would lean towards Metchie being Woods' backup and Hutchinson picking up most of Brown's snaps if he’s out.
TE Dalton Schultz
I'd imagine we don’t see Schultz props until we know more about the statuses of Woods and Brown, but he’s obviously less impacted being the team’s lead TE.
The Browns have been very good against TEs this year, ranking second in DVOA against the position. They play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, which is usually going to hurt most TEs.
However, Cleveland recently lost LB Anthony Walker to the IR, who has been excellent in TE coverage this year. His absence makes the matchup a bit less daunting for Schultz.
One slight concern for Schultz is that Brevin Jordan has seen an increase in playing time over the past three weeks at his expense. Schultz would typically be good for an 80-85% routes run rate most weeks, but that has dipped to 69% over the past three weeks due to Jordan's increased snaps.+
Bet your Stroud, Singletary, Collins, and Schultz player props in Texas using a DFS or Social Sportsbook app like PrizePicks, Betr, or Fliff!
