Buccaneers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay (-110; DraftKings)
- Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 Receptions (-180)
- Bills Moneyline (-455)
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Dalton Kincaid
Over 3.5 Receptions (-180)
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills suffered a double loss during their game. They dropped their second game in three weeks and also lost an important player on offense — Dawson Knox. The tight end will undergo surgery for a wrist injury and will be out indefinitely.
Without Knox, rookie Dalton Kincaid must step up. He performed stellar in Week 7, recording eight receptions — his highest of the season — on a 28% targets per route run. Despite missing Week 6, Kincaid ranks third on the Bills in targets (27), averaging 4.16 receptions per game this season.
He gets a friendly matchup against the Buccaneers defense. Not only are they allowing the highest percentage of targets to the slot position (where Kincaid has ran 54% of the time), but they are also allowing the fifth-most targets per game (8.33) to the tight end position.
Five of the last six tight ends that Tampa Bay has faced have gone over this prop. Kincaid's 20-of-24 targets from zone coverage are an added advantage against the Buccaneers defense, which plays zone at the 10th-highest rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
Buffalo Bills
Moneyline (-455)
On its own, Kincaid to record over 3.5 receptions is listed at -180, so to make this more playable, I feel very comfortable pairing it with the Bills to win. This is a must-win spot at home for Buffalo as -9-point favorites before getting into the meat of the schedule.
The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games against winning teams. Despite recent setbacks, I would still opt for Josh Allen over Baker Mayfield, particularly when playing on home turf.
