Mike Evans
Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Chris Godwin
Anytime Touchdown (+280)
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Evans has done nothing but catch touchdowns this season, logging scores in four of six games. Notably, the Bills are last in DVOA against opposing WR1s and 22nd in DVOA against the deep pass.
Evans has at least eight targets in five of six games — and that's why I also like Godwin.
Tampa's WR2 has yet to score this season despite 49 targets, which is the second most in the NFL without a touchdown. He also leads the Buccaneers in red-zone targets with nine and has five targets inside the 10. Needless to say, Godwin's a great positive regression candidate for touchdowns.
Given that the Bills are dealing with injuries to their secondary, plus the potential of a trailing game script for Tampa, we have to target the wide receivers in this spot.
Dalton Kincaid
Anytime Touchdown (+240)
The rookie's yet to log a touchdown this season, but that could change on Thursday Night Football for one simple reason: he's the only Bills tight end left standing.
With Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris out, that means Kincaid will get the lion's share of snaps. The volume should be there — Kincaid had eight targets last week and he's third on the team in targets per game.
The Bucs have allowed the eighth-most targets to tight ends this season, with the weakest part of their defense being over the middle of the field.
The Golden Rule last season was that we auto-bet Knox whenever he had odds of +200 or better. With Knox out of the picture, the torch has been passed to Kincaid.
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