My strategy is to create a correlated single-game parlay that illustrates how I see the game playing out. This is largely for entertainment purposes so please bet responsibility.
Week 1's Sunday Night Football matchup is a rematch of the 2021 season opener between the Buccaneers and Cowboys — this time, at AT&T Stadium.
The over/under is at 50.5 and the spread is -2.5 favoring the Bucs, so we should expect a high scoring and competitive game. I will only be focusing on Dallas' offense here and will use a +EV angle.
Tony Pollard
15+ Receiving Yards & 3+ Receptions
Pollard, who averaged 22.5 receiving yards in 2021, hit this yardage total in seven of his last 10 games. It’s been reported that Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is working to find alternative ways to use Pollard in the offense alongside Ezekiel Elliott.
Putting him in the slot is one solution. Pollard's receiving yards line moved up 24% since opening, going from 15.5 to 20.5, which is usually a good sign. In conjunction with the yards, I'm also playing Pollard to notch at least three receptions.
Dak Prescott
35+ Passing Attempts
Prescott hit this prop in 11 of his final 13 games in 2021. Last season, the Buccaneers were known to stack tight boxes to force the opposition to throw rather than run. Tampa Bay led the league in opponent pass attempts as quarterbacks averaged 40.1 attempts per game. For context, the league average was 34.9.
Ezekiel Elliott
Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
Elliott went under this number in 11 of his last 12 games to end last season. He seems to be recovered from his partially torn PCL, but I still do not like his odds of starting the season strong. Most prop lines have his rushing attempt line at 12.5, so this assumes he would need to average 5.38 yards per carry to achieve the over.
Holes could be harder for Elliott to find this season without LT Tyron Smith while Tony Pollard is a threat to steal some of his touches. And as previously mentioned, I believe the Buccaneers' defensive scheme will force the Cowboys to abandon the run game.
Dalton Schultz
35+ Receiving Yards
Schultz capped his 2021 season by hitting this prop in six of his last eight games. I am going to stick with the reliable weapon here.
Last season, Schultz ranked third in Dallas' offensive pecking order with a 17.12% target share. With a thin group to work with (no Michael Gallup or James Washington), Prescott should look Schultz's way when he can't go to CeeDee Lamb.
The Parlay (+285)
- Tony Pollard 15+ Receiving Yards & 3+ Receptions
- Dak Prescott 35+ Passing Attempts
- Ezekiel Elliott Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
- Dalton Schultz 35+ Receiving Yards
