What a great way to close Wild Card Weekend, looking for Cowboys vs. Buccaneers player props.
We have "America's Team" facing Tom Brady, with a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on the line.
As I scoured the odds board for Cowboys vs. Bucs props, I'm using our expert's projections, which are only available on Action Labs. Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's numbers have been winning bettors money all season. Now, let's extend it into the playoffs.
Michael Gallup
Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
Numbers are down for Gallup this season compared to his peak production with the Cowboys.
Gallup’s 1.00 yard per route run is a career low, and it’s been a reason for concern of late. He was under that number in each of the Cowboys’ last four games, including a 0.06 mark in Week 15 and 0.27 last week against the Commanders.
Gallup’s Average Depth of Target of 12.2 is tied for a career low. His drop percentage is up from last year, and his yards after catch per reception is down 0.8 yards to 2.8.
Gallup has been at 84% or more snaps in each of the Cowboys’ last four games, but that hasn’t translated to production. He has gone under this total just twice in that span and in half of his 14 games.
In his last five games, Gallup had two or fewer catches three times. That’s key with this prop.
Gallup is averaging just 10 yards per reception in his last six games. Back in Week 13, he had four receptions but only 23 yards.
This looks like a good spot to fade Gallup with all those things going against him. He’s projected for 31.1 receiving yards by Koerner and Raybon, and his receiving line is 37.5 at BetMGM as of Sunday night.
Mike Evans
Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
This seems like a reasonable number for Evans, but the Buccaneers’ WR1 has had a rough go of things this season. He’s projected for 58.6 by Koerner and Raybon for Monday night’s matchup against the Cowboys.
Evans eclipsed his regular-season receptions and receiving yardstotals from each of the past two seasons in 2022, but that was mostly thanks to a 10-catch, 207-yard, three-touchdown breakout against the Panthers in Week 17. Outside of that, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for Evans or the Buccaneers offense.
Prior to that outburst against Carolina, Evans had gone under this total in six of his previous seven games. He had games with as low as 29 and 31 receiving yards in that span.
Maybe Brady and Evans figured it out in Week 17 and we’re foolish for fading him against the Cowboys, but the numbers say it’s the play. A healthy dose of Trevon Diggs will help our case.
Pick: Mike Evans Under 65.5 Receiving Yards |
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