Buccaneers vs. Eagles Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | -6.5 |
| Eagles Odds | +6.5 |
| Over/Under | 53 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX, NFL Network |
Despite receiving 71% of the bets as of writing (see more NFL public betting data here), the Bucs have dropped from 7- to 6.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks, so it appears sharp action is coming in on the Eagles here.
Let's take a closer look at why that might be and how I'm betting this spread.
Pressuring Tom Brady Will Be Key
Tom Brady suffered a thumb injury during last Sunday's blowout win over the Dolphins. After back-to-back limited practices on Monday and Tuesday, Brady was able to get in a full practice on Wednesday, so I'd say it's safe to assume that his thumb should be close enough to 100%.
The Eagles suffered a massive blow to their defensive line when Brandon Graham tore his Achilles in Week 2. However, they still have a ton of talent up front with Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Derek Barnett and Josh Sweat. This is a matchup in which Graham's loss may finally catch up to them, though, so it will be crucial for this front four to generate pressure against Brady to have any chance of slowing him down.
Bucs center Ryan Jensen is questionable with a hip injury, and if he's unable to suit up, third-round rookie Robert Hainsey would start in Jensen's place. In that scenario, I would love the Eagles +7 even more than I already do (we'll get to that shortly).
Bucs Defensive Injuries Outweigh Eagles' Offensive Absences
The Eagles will be without Dallas Goedert (COVID) and Lane Johnson (personal).
Goedert is one of the game's best tight ends, but his absence shouldn't impact the market considering the Eagles still have Zach Ertz, who can step up in Goedert's place. Plus Rob Gronkowski remains out for the Bucs, so that effectively cancels out Goedert's absence when you factor in both team's depth at TE.
Johnson's absence means the Eagles will be down three starting offensive linemen with both Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks on IR, but the Eagles have solid depth at O-line, and second-round rookie Landon Dickerson and 2019 first-rounder Andre Dillard have been able to step up.
The Bucs defense is the group dealing with the most injuries heading into TNF.
Cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis remain on IR while linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield have been ruled out. Jason Pierre-Paul has been able to play with a broken finger but has been ineffective so far this season as he has yet to record a single sack on 53 pass-rush attempts.
Bucs vs. Eagles Pick
I believe sharp action is on the Eagles due to the cluster of injuries on the Bucs defense. The Eagles have enough depth to overcome their injuries, but the Bucs don't. The drop-off from David — the captain and leader of this Tampa Bay defense — to Kevin Minter is massive, especially when going up against a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Hurts.
I would not be surprised if the Bucs can build a 10+ point lead over the Eagles, but Philly would be a serious threat for a backdoor cover getting a key number of +7.
Pick: Eagles +7
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