We have four Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions for Thursday Night Football Week 5. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the game airing exclusively on Prime Video.
The Falcons are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers (Falcons -2.5), and the game total is 44 at most sportsbooks. Atlanta is a -130 favorite on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay is +110 for an upset win. A whopping 74% of bets and 86% of the money are on the Bucs to cover, while 83% of bets and 76% of the money are on the over.
The Buccaneers (3-1) won 33-16 over the Eagles last week. Baker Mayfield has 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this season, while rookie Bucky Irving has taken over the backfield and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. The Falcons (2-2) are coming off an important 26-24 win over the Saints. Kirk Cousins has yet to display his old form as he returns from an Achilles tear. Cousins has 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 64.7% of his passes.
We have bets on the spread and total, as well as a player prop for tonight's NFC South contest. Here are our NFL predictions and Thursday Night Football best bets for Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
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NFL Thursday Night Football Odds
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread: Falcons -2.5
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers over/under: 43.5 points
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers moneyline: Falcons -130 | Buccaneers +110
Billy Ward's Bucs-Falcons Against the Spread Pick
By Billy Ward
The Bucs come into Week 5 as the surprise leaders in the NFC South at 3-1. They’ve also been one of the luckiest teams in football, ranking third in our Week 5 Luck Rankings. Atlanta comes in at fifth, though, so it’s not a huge difference, but is worth noting.
I expected to be on the Bucs coming into this one, but then I looked at the injury report. Tampa Bay might be the most banged-up team in the NFL, with injuries clustered at key positions.
The Buccaneers offensive line is a concern. Starting right tackle Luke Goedeke has already been ruled out, while starting left tackle Tristan Wirfs failed to get in a full practice this week and is questionable.
It’s similar on the defensive line, with one defensive end already ruled out and two more on the injury report.
The Falcons have Bijan Robinson listed as questionable. He’s the biggest name on the injury report, but isn't nearly as impactful to the game as losing multiple players in the trenches would be for the Bucs.
I’m playing the injury report here, especially with the market overrating Robinson’s impact while underrating the linemen.
Pick: Falcons -1.5 (-110)
John LanFranca's Bets the Over/Under
The Falcons offense is clearly improving as the season progresses, and I believe that unit is due for some positive regression.
Atlanta has converted just 10-of-38 third downs, ranking 29th in conversion rate. Considering the Tampa Bay defense has surrendered 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, the Falcons should also be able to limit the number of long down-and-distance situations they face.
As for the Falcons defense, this is a unit ranking 24th in the league in completion percentage allowed over expectation and last in the NFL in sack rate per dropback. They continue to rank highly in blitz rate, yet they cannot bother opposing passers. Furthermore, Baker Mayfield has thrived against zone coverage this season, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Atlanta just happens to be one of the most zone-heavy defenses in football (sixth in the NFL).
The perception is divisional games tend to go under more often than they do over. When played inside a dome, though, the over has cashed in 20 of the past 32 (62.5%) divisional games since the start of the 2023 regular season. That rate has steadily increased, but has still trended over at a 59.6% rate since the start of 2021, which gives us a 94-game sample size.
With perfect conditions indoors, and good matchups for both offenses, this total of 43.5 is a couple of points too low.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-115)
Bijan Robinson Player Prop: Bet This Over
The spot is great for Robinson, and the books haven't adjusted for his usage this year.
The second-year running back has hit the over on this number in three games this season, having seen four or more targets in each of those games. Here, he gets a matchup against a Bucs defense that has allowed the third-most targets and second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, despite being one of the better pass defenses in the league.
Considering the matchup, this line should be closer to 30.5, making this a great bet. And I'm hitting the ladder on Robinson's receiving yards.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
