We have an intriguing Thursday Night Football game ahead with a divisional clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
These two teams are in first and second place, respectively, in the NFC South, and both come into this affair on the back of a win last week.
Here's my Buccaneers vs. Falcons player props for Thursday, October 3.
Sam Farley's Buccaneers vs. Falcons Player Props
- Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+114, FanDuel)
- Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+112, FanDuel)
- Tyler Allgeier Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-113, BetRivers)
- Bucky Irving Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, FanDuel)
Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+114)
We know that the Falcons have a good defense, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of yardage allowed to receivers (132.75 per game) and touchdowns to wide outs (0.75 per game).
Generally, they’ve been damaged the most by slot receivers, which means we’re likely to see a down day for Mike Evans and a boost for Chris Godwin (he’s run the majority of his routes from the slot through the first four games).
Godwin currently has 27 catches, tied with Amon-Ra St Brown for the third-most in the NFL this season. He also sits eighth in the league in terms of targets, averaging 8.5 per game.
At plus money, it’s worth taking the Bucs’ wide receiver to haul in another seven or more on TNF.
Pick: Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions (+114)
Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+112)
We’ve been waiting for the real Drake London breakout since he was drafted eighth overall in 2022.
He’s a big, strong wideout, but in his first two seasons, he failed to hit 1,000 yards and only had a combined six touchdowns.
The good news is that he’s getting more and more involved in this offense, and has scored in two of the Falcons' four games so far.
He opened the season with two catches, but he's had exactly six in each of the last three games.
The really interesting bit of data is that he’s seen his targets increase every single week, from three against the Steelers in the opener to 12 in last week’s win over the Saints. That also tied his career high in targets, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see an equally high number this week.
The Bucs are good against the pass, but it’s what Kirk Cousins historically does best, and he’s beginning to form real chemistry with London.
Pick: Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (+112)
Tyler Allgeier Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
We all know that Bijan Robinson is the best back in Atlanta, but the Falcons have real belief in Tyler Allgeier.
We saw that under Arthur Smith, and it’s showing under Raheem Morris, too, with the workload getting shared more equally between the two running backs.
Robinson still has the buck of the high value passing work, but last week, we saw Allgeier lead Robinson in carries (8-to-7).
He rushed for 60 yards against the Saints at an impressive 7.5 yards per carry and has topped 31.5 yards in all but one game this season.
He’s been reliable in terms of making the hard yards — with a healthy 6.1 YPC — and should do well against a team that's given up 131.5 rushing yards per game.
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Bucky Irving Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
The Bucs' backfield is another unit that's shifted its dynamic as the season has progressed.
Rachaad White came into the season as the lead back, but it’s become far more of a running back by committee, with Bucky Irving looking like the player in the ascension.
The fourth-round pick has had more carries than White over the past two weeks and is growing into his role on the team. Last week, White had his lowest share of offensive snaps (under 58%) in over a year, and the two split carries, with 10 each.
White is still the team’s pass catching back, but it looks like Irving is the better runner.
The Falcons are good against the run, so the safest way to back Irving is by betting on rushing attempts, not yards.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
