Buccaneers vs Lions Player Props: Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam Laporta, Cade Otton, Baker Mayfield
In the table below, you'll find my Buccaneers vs Lions player props for the NFL Divisional Round on Sunday. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs
Anytime TD (+100)
The first prop that we simply have to take for this Divisisional Round clash is a Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown. He had a slow start in his rookie season with Detroit, failing to score in his first four games before getting an injury that ruled him out for two weeks, but upon his return, he showed his quality and has now racked up 12 touchdowns (postseason included).
His score against the Rams was his seventh touchdown in six games; he’s in great form ahead of this game. We know that David Montgomery will get the bulk of the short-yardage work, but with Gibbs’ ability in space and the passing game, it adds another threat and I’m confident we’ll see his star grow with another scoring performance.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (+100)
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Sam Laporta
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Listed as questionable ahead of this game, I’m fully expecting Sam LaPorta to be a go on Sunday, just as he was last week. He’s become a crucial part of this offense and the 6-foot-3 tight end is a big body that can be dangerous in the red zone as well as in the open field.
His line for this one is at 40.5, not a small amount, but a number that he’s covered in four of his last eight games. What pushes it over the edge and makes it a must-bet is the Bucs’ inability to stop TEs this season.
In the regular season the Bucs gave up 1,077 yards to the position, the third-highest total in the NFL.
Pick: Sam Laporta Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
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Sam Laporta
Anytime TD (+160)
Following on from the above point, the Bucs are also bad at stopping tight ends in the red zone and allowed seven touchdowns in the regular season, a number that only five other teams topped.
We’ve seen LaPorta find the end zone on 11 occasions this season, including his last two games. There’s a good chance, certainly better than +160 would indicate, that he does it again on Sunday.
Pick: Sam Laporta Anytime TD (+160)
Cade Otton
Over 3.5 Receptions (+140)
The Lions aren’t quite as bad against the tight end position as the Bucs, but they certainly aren’t good at defending it. Thus, I’m very bullish on Cade Otton having a big game for Tampa Bay.
Although he’s a tight end, he is effectively the third pass-catcher on this team behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He is far more of a threat than either David Moore or Trey Palmer.
Otton had eight receptions on 11 targets last week, and with the Bucs transition to a passing offense, I can’t help but feel he still gets big volume here so we are taking over 3.5 receptions at a healthy +140.
Pick: Cade Otton Over 3.5 Receptions (+140)
Baker Mayfield
Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Earlier on in the season it felt like the Bucs were reliant on the run at times and trying to use Baker Mayfield effectively but not overexpose him. That’s certainly changed in the last month as this offense has begun to lean heavily on the pass.
In the last five weeks, we’ve see three 300-plus yard passing games from Mayfield, compared to just one in the 14 weeks before that. His passing yards total is 257.5 and I expect him to cover that with ease.
It’s a number he’s covered in four of his last five games, not to mention the fact the Lions cannot defend the pass. They let Matthew Stafford throw for 357 yards and allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in the regular season.
If the Bucs are playing from behind, which the spread would suggest is likely, then the chances of Mayfield throwing a lot increase further. It’s a win-win.
Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-120)
