Buccaneers Win Boosts Their Playoff Chances in Wild NFC South Race

Buccaneers Win Boosts Their Playoff Chances in Wild NFC South Race article feature image

A wild day in the NFC South has thrown the division into chaos.

The Atlanta Falcons entered the day with a one game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. However, there’s now a three-way tie atop the division following their last-second loss to the Bucs combined with the Saints’ win against the Panthers. As of this week, the Buccaneers have the edge based on the head-to-head tiebreaker despite the fact that all three teams are below .500.

Baker Mayfield’s made a strong case to be Tampa Bay’s quarterback of the future. There was more Mayfield magic on Sunday as he authored a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive culminating in a game-winning 11-yard strike to Cade Otton with just 31 seconds remaining.

The emotional win gives Tampa Bay a strong chance to capture the NFC South crown. The Bucs entered Week 14 with only a 25% chance to win it according to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Their victory upped their chances to as high as 55%, making them the favorite at this point with implied odds of -122. Meanwhile, a loss would have plummeted them down to a minuscule 3% shot.

On the other hand, Atlanta had a 57% chance to win the NFC South prior to kickoff. A win would have given them a stranglehold on the division with odds upwards of 82%. Instead, it’s dropped to low as 28% with implied odds of +257.

Meanwhile, the Saints beat the Carolina Panthers in the other divisional game this week. The win kept them in the race with an approximate 25% chance to capture the crown (implied odds of +300). A loss would have dropped their chances to just 10%.

The next four weeks will be crucial for how the division plays out. The Buccaneers are 1-1 against the Falcons and have a win over the Saints with one more matchup against the Saints in Tampa. The Falcons also have a win over the Saints with their final game of the season against them in New Orleans.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.