Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 9 on FanDuel.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Bucs +9.5 (-110)
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+115)
- Rachaad White Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Bucs vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds: +825 | $10 Bet Wins $82.50
Our Luck Rankings have the Chiefs as the second-luckiest team in the NFL, with Tampa Bay slightly unlucky at 18th.
A game with a big spread like this is a solid use case for those ratings. Part of Kansas City's rank is due to the fact that they aren't really blowing most teams away. Five of their seven wins have came in one-score games, and they have a point differential of just +50. For some context, the 6-1 Lions have a +100 point differential coming into the week despite having one more loss.
Obviously, part of the reason this spread is so big is because of the injuries on the Bucs offense. They're missing their top two starting wide receivers in Chis Godwin and Mike Evans.
Still, they put up 26 points last week without Godwin and Evans, so the offense isn't totally lost. With the Chiefs failing to clear 28 points in any game this season, even getting to 20 should be enough for a Bucs cover.
With their own injuries on offense, the Chiefs have increasingly leaned on their reliable weapon, Travis Kelce. He saw 12 targets in a close win last week, while averaging nine per game over the last three weeks.
Kelce also has six red-zone targets over the past three games, after drawing just two in the Chiefs' first four contests. That obviously helps his chances of scoring, though he also has the YAC ability to score from anywhere.
More importantly, I like how this prop works with our parlay. The books view it as anti-correlated, since a Chiefs touchdown clearly works against the Bucs chance of covering. However, Kelce is more heavily involved in close (or trailing) game scripts, so there's a case that his odds are better if Kansas City doesn't cover the big spread.
This seems like a low line for a "starting" running back, until you look at the usage from White in recent weeks. He's been out-carried by Bucky Irving since returning from his Week 6 absence, with 16 total carries over the two games since.
While he's (barely) cleared that line in each of those games, they came against teams easier to run on than the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks second in DVOA, yards per attempt, and adjusted line yards.
Like the Kelce prop, this one somewhat negatively correlates with the Bucs spread pick. However, there's plenty of room for a negative game script for Tampa while still covering the +9.5 spread.
Ideally, the Chiefs are in control of this one but it stays within about a touchdown. That's how we thread the needle on these picks.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Parlay Odds: +825 | $10 Bet Wins $82.50
