One of the best in the business when it comes to player prop bets, our very own Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs should be your top resource for everything prop-related for this year’s NFL playoffs.
There are a few props that stand out this week for this Super Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s jump right in.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: Bucs-Eagles
Jalen Hurts Over 16.5 Completions
While Hurts is still considered a rush-first quarterback in this league, he’s improved substantially as a passer in his first full season as the Eagles starter. He’s completed 61.3% of his passes this season — up from 52% a year ago — and was particularly effective down the stretch. Over his last three games, he completed 67% of his passes and led the Eagles to three straight wins to heading into the playoffs. He also averaged 18 completions across those contests.
With the Eagles coming in as an 8 to 8.5-point underdog in this one (check real-time NFL odds here), it’s likely that they are playing from behind for most of the game on Sunday. Naturally, that means more pass attempts for Hurts. In games that the Eagles ended up losing by eight points or more this year, Hurts' pass attempts — and completions — soared. In those contests, he averaged 25 completions per game, substantially more than his season average and the current total on this player prop.
At the current number, the current total of 16.5 is also well below Koerner’s projection of 20.7. Fire this one up with confidence.
Dallas Goedert Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Goedert has been Hurts’ top option in the passing game down the stretch and has been a major factor in the Eagle’s rise into the 7-seed in the NFC playoffs. Over his last four games, Goedert is averaging 6.5 targets, 5.3 receptions and 85 receiving yards per game. That also includes a 28-yard performance on two receptions in a blowout 34-10 win over the New YorkGiants where the Eagles coasted for most of the game and did not need to rely on Goedert as heavily.
This week, he'll have a strong matchup in what should be a very favorable game script. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Goedert has a substantial 44% matchup advantage against his projected primary defenders in this one, second to only Travis Kelce among tight ends playing in the first round of the playoffs. In a game that should see the Eagles passing quite frequently, there’s strong value on the over on this receiving prop.
I’m hammering the over on this one and would be comfortable playing it up to 59.5 receiving yards if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.
