Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop bet for every NFL primetime game of 2021. He has a 421-320-5 (56%) all-time record on NFL picks he’s tracked in the Action app.
Bucs vs. Eagles Props To Bet
Mike Evans Under 5.5 Rec (+110)
Evans has been on a tear over the past four games, posting lines of 5/75/2 (Week 2), 8/106/2 (Week 3), 7/75/0 (Week 4) and 6/113/2 (Week 5). He has cleared 5.5 receptions in the past three games, but the market is offering some value on his under here.
I'm expecting Evans to line up across from Eagles shutdown corner Darius Slay more than any other Bucs wide receiver — a scenario that will likely funnel more targets to Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown as a result. I would not be surprised if Evans still manages to haul in a couple of deep passes and/or touchdowns, though, which is why I'm strictly attacking his receptions market.
I'm projecting Evans closer to 5.1 receptions on Thursday night, with a 59.5% chance of going under 5.5 receptions, which he did in 12 of 20 games last season (60%).
I would bet this down to -125.
Side note: Tom Brady has averaged 31 completions per game over the past three games (in which Evans has gone over 5.5 each game). Brady's market for completions on Thursday night is around 26-26.5. Indeed, he could throw 30+ completions again (which would not be ideal for this prop), but in terms of projections, we should expect the overall volume to regress a bit on Thursday.
I'm not worried about Brady's thumb injury after he was able to get in a full practice in on Wednesday, but there is a chance it's worse than he is letting on … after all, he played through a sprained/torn MCL last season. If the thumb injury is an issue, Evans would probably be the WR most affected as Brady would likely opt for shorter throws to Godwin, Brown and Leonard Fournette, or even lean on the run game more — another hidden factor that could provide value to Evans' under that I am not factoring into my projections.
Pick: Under 5.5 Rec (+110) at BetMGM and DraftKings
