This is an interesting game between two teams with very different offensive philosophies. No team throws the ball at a higher rate than the Buccaneers, while no team runs the ball more frequently than the Eagles.
Both offenses are good (from a DVOA standpoint) at their non-favored phase of the game, but that's largely due to opposing defenses working so hard to stop Tampa's passing and Philadelphia's running.
Tampa of course is missing major contributors in the passing game. There are also expected to be tough weather conditions in Tampa, with heavy rains and moderate wind. That tilts the advantage to Philadelphia, and should keep scoring low.
We'll be building our parlay around that scenario: a wet, windy game that's played primarily on the ground. That's the situation I detailed in my game guide for this one, and it opens up some correlated parlay opportunities at Caesars Sportsbook for us to take advantage of.
A full breakdown of this game can be found here.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Bucs-Eagles Same-Game Parlay
Eagles Alt Spread (+7.5)
While I don't think the adverse conditions (or the Bucs' roster issues) amount to an Eagles win, they should be able to keep it close. Both of those things will take a bite out of Tampa's explosive passing, while favoring the better running team.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' multi-headed backfield would also benefit form slippery conditions. Tom Brady will likely find a way to work his usual late-game magic and turn this one into a Bucs win, but it won't be a blowout. The spread for this one is 8.5, but we can get better odds by only taking 7.5. Let's assume Philadelphia keeps this one within seven.
Under 46
This leg heavily correlates with the above. It's obviously easier to keep a low-scoring game close than it is a higher scoring contest. Given what we're expecting based on the weather, that also tilts this game toward the under.
These teams played earlier in the year and combined for 50 points. When you take Antonio Brown (93 yards and a touchdown) and Chris Godwin (five catches for 43 yards) out of the Bucs lineup, that's worth at least four points on it's own. Add in the weather factor, and we have an under game.
Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rush Yards
For the Eagles to keep this close, Hurts will need to be productive on the ground. Even with good weather, it's unlikely Philadelphia passes the ball well against the Bucs. The weather is an added bonus of course — as is the Bucs' blitz rate. They blitz more than any team in the league, which is a boost to rushing quarterbacks.
Hurts topped this mark in eight of 15 games this season, but expect more schemed runs for him in this one.
Editor's Note: This story was published before news broke that Bucs running back Leonard Fournette would be inactive for Sunday's game. Our analyst still recommends the other three legs of this parlay.
Leonard Fournette Under 15.5 Rush Attempts
Leonard Fournette is returning to the Tampa lineup after missing the three previous games. Even when healthy, 16+ carries wasn't a given for Fournette. He ran the ball 16 times or more only twice in his previous eight games. The Eagles keeping this one close also limits Fournette's rushing expectation, making for a nice correlation.
The main factor to this leg is Fournette's health though. While it is a playoff game, it seems likely that the Bucs don't overload Fournette in his first game back. They also recently signed Le'Veon Bell, who mixed in for three carries in each of the last two games.
As an added bonus, this is the top player prop of Wild Card Weekend in our Player Props Tool. Sean Koerner has Fournette projected for 13 carries.
