We're in for a treat on Thursday Night Football with a Bills vs. Dolphins clash (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) that should be full of great offense.
Let’s break down my best Bills vs Dolphins player props available.
Sam Farley's 5 Bills vs Dolphins Player Props
- Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-110, FanDuel)
- Dalton Kincaid Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (-110, bet365)
- Tyreek Hill Under 99.5 Receiving Yards (-113, BetRivers)
Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It’s hard to bet a Bills game and not take any Josh Allen props, and this week’s clash is no different.
I'm going to back the quarterback to hit the over on his rushing yards line, currently at 36.5. He racked up 39 yards on nine carries against the Cardinals, and we should see similar yards — if not more — on Thursday night.
The Dolphins didn’t do great against the Jags' rushing attack, with Jacksonville rushing for 139 yards, of which Tank Bigsby managed 73. On the one occasion when Trevor Lawrence used his legs, he picked up eight yards.
Given Allen ran for 67 yards on 15 attempts in these teams' second matchup last season, I like our chances on this over.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-110)
Last Sunday against the Cardinals, we saw Allen start from where he left off last season by picking up a pair of touchdowns.
It’s clear that he’s the most dangerous part of the ground game for the Bills, and in the red zone, he’s more than happy to bet on himself to score.
He scored one rushing touchdown in two games against the Dolphins last season, but he tacked up an impressive 15 touchdowns with his feet across the campaign.
When it really matters, we see Allen trust his legs. In what looks to be a tight game against a divisional opponent, I'm backing that to happen again.
Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-110)
Dalton Kincaid Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It wasn’t the game that Dalton Kincaid envisioned in Week 1, with the tight end hauling in just one of his two targets for 11 yards.
With Stefon Diggs now out of the picture, it was expected that Kincaid would see an increase in targets. But, as Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady highlighted after the game, it was clear that the Cardinals defense was focused on containing Kincaid.
If the Cardinals view Kincaid as the danger man on the Bills offense, then it stands to reason that the Dolphins would also. After all, Kincaid caught seven of eight targets for 84 yards when these teams met last time.
While the Bills would love to feature Kincaid, he might struggle again.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
One man who profited from both the departure of Diggs and the Cardinals’ game plan for Kincaid was Keon Coleman.
The rookie, picked 33rd overall in this year’s draft, had a good game against the Cardinals, catching four of five targets and leading the Bills in receiving yards.
Coleman is clearly a talented receiver who has already earned Allen's trust. That means we should continue to see him get looks in this offense. With that, I'm backing him to get four or more catches on Thursday.
Pick: Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
Tyreek Hill Under 99.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
It always feels risky taking the under on Tyreek Hill receiving yards, especially given that he opened the season with 130 yards.
However, the Bills have schemed up well against Hill in the past.
In the team’s two meetings last season, Hill managed to put up 58 and 82 yards, both short of the line of 99.5.
This Bills’ defense isn't elite, but Buffalo has a proven track record of locking down Hill, at least to some extent.
In 2022, the Bills held Hill to 33 and 69 yards in the regular season and 69 yards in the playoffs.
In five meetings across the past two years, Hill has yet to get close to 99.5 receiving yards, averaging 62.2 yards per game.
