In case you somehow missed it, some major NFL offseason news broke Sunday night as the New England Patriots agreed to a one-year deal with Cam Newton.
Now, it's not necessarily clear whether Newton will start right away, but even if his presence doesn't have an immediate effect on the field, it's already having one on the betting market.
Here's how Patriots futures odds have moved at PointsBet since the signing.
Odds as of June 29 and via PointsBet, where you can get a $200 sign-up bonus AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app.Learn more about BetSync here.
Patriots Odds to Win the Super Bowl
- Before signing Cam: 25-1 (3.85% implied probability)
- After signing Cam: 20-1 (4.76% implied probability)
For those unfamiliar, 20-1 — or +2000 — means every $1 bet would return $20.
In addition to their increase of nearly a full percentage point in probability, the Patriots took the sole position of the third-most likely champion in the AFC behind the Chiefs (5-1) and Ravens (6-1).
There are, however, four NFC teams — the 49ers (9-1), Buccaneers (10-1), Saints (11-1) and Cowboys (17-1) — still in front of New England, as well as two — the Eagles and Seahawks — at the same 20-1 mark, which puts the Pats in a three-way tie as the seventh-most likely Super Bowl winners.
As for our model's projections, the Patriots made an even bigger jump than what's been suggested by the market. Before signing Cam, the Pats were given just a 1.21% chance to win the Super Bowl — a figure that's now up to 5.73% and suggests that there would be value in betting the current 20-1 price.
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Patriots Odds to Win the AFC
- Before signing Cam: 12-1 (7.69% implied probability)
- After signing Cam: 10-1 (9.09% implied probability)
A corresponding move took place in the conference futures market, as New England's chance at appearing in Super Bowl 55 remained about double its chance of winning it — which makes sense.
At 10-1, the Pats are again seen as the third-largest threat in the AFC, though they're still well behind both the Chiefs (+225) and Ravens (+275), and only a hair in front of the Colts (11-1), Bills and Steelers (12-1 apiece).
Our model — which, again, has reacted more strongly to yesterday's news — has gone from 2.92% to an 11.42% chance of New England returning to the Super Bowl.
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Patriots Odds to Win the AFC East
- Before signing Cam: +140 (41.67% implied probability)
- After signing Cam: +115 (46.51% implied probability)
Perhaps the most interesting race — and the biggest impact of Cam's presence in Foxborough, relatively — comes by way of the AFC East, which, prior to the Patriots signing Newton, was seen as the Bills' division to lose.
The Patriots have won the division every season since their last Tom Brady-less year (2008), and had won it the five years prior as well. The last time the Bills took the crown was back in 1995.
However, with Brady's departure and Buffalo seemingly on the rise, the Bills were listed as +110 favorites prior to Sunday's news, with the Patriots coming in at +140.
Now, it's the Patriots back atop the board at +115, with Buffalo sliding back to +130. The Jets (+750) and Dolphins (10-1) round out the four division members.
According to our model, though, that price is once again too low. Our projections have moved the Patriots' division chances from 30.21% all the way to 57.46%, suggesting that fair odds should be closer to -135.
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