Cardinals Beat Cowboys in One of the Biggest Upsets in Recent Memory

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The Cardinals upset the Cowboys as +11.5 underdogs — and as long as +510 on the moneyline — in one of the biggest NFL upsets in recent years.

Arizona had been as long as +13 on the spread before settling at its closing price on Sunday afternoon of +11.5.

It's the largest upset by an NFL team since the Panthers shocked Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Oct. 2022 as 13-point underdogs.

Before that, the most notable upset was by the Jaguars as +15.5 underdogs against Carson Wentz and the Colts, who needed a win in Week 18 to ensure a playoff spot. The embarrassment helped shuttle Wentz out of Indianapolis — and soon, out of the league.

Across all major American sportsbooks, roughly 80% of the public money was on the Cowboys to cover tonight, according to the Action Network's proprietary betting data.

Biggest NFL Single-Game Upsets — Since 1980

December, 2020: New York Jets (+17.5) at Los Angeles Rams

December 1995: Washington Redskins (+17.5) at Dallas Cowboys

December 2019: Miami Dolphins (+17.5) at New England Patriots

December 1992: New York Jets (+17) at Buffalo Bills

September 2018: Buffalo Bills (+16.5) at Minnesota Vikings

November 2021: Jacksonville Jaguars (+16) vs. Buffalo Bills

November 1992: Indianapolis Colts (+16) vs. Buffalo Bills

December 1985: New Orleans Saints (+16) at San Francisco 49ers

The Cowboys as -11.5 favorites represent the 11th-worst road loss in the last 20 years, according to our data guru Evan Abrams. It's the first time a double digit road favorite has lost outright in a season's first three games since 1990.

The Cowboys had been, alongside the Chiefs, the biggest favorites in a single game so far this football season. While Kansas City took take care of business with a blowout of the Bears, the Cowboys faltered with their No. 1 ranked defense giving up 28 points to a lowly Josh Dobbs.

Dallas' roughly -750 odds on the moneyline implied odds of over 88% that the Cowboys would win this game.

The advanced metrics community is reeling, too. After a dominant two weeks, the Cowboys had been the No. 1 overall team in DVOA and Expected Points Added per play. Dak Prescott, too, had been rated the second-best quarterback in the league in EPA per play + Completion Percentage Over Expected (EPA/play + CPOE).

The vaunted Cowboys defense had been rated — alongside with the Browns defense — as eons better than any other defense in the league, according to DVOA.

But cornerback Trevon Diggs — who is now out for the year — was sorely missed on Sunday. And matchups against the Jets and Giants, two bottom-feeder offenses, drastically skewed those early year numbers.

How Trevon Diggs Injury Affects Cowboys Odds, Futures Value, Season Outlook Image
About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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