They say the early bird gets the worm, which is true for many things in life — fishing, working out, photographing crepuscular wildlife species in a grassy meadow with the morning sun illuminating the dewdrops, etc.
In betting, early birds can get two types of worms.
One is excellent closing line value, the other is a ticket that might as well be put through a paper shredder. Those who jumped the gun and nabbed a Cardinals-Ravens under 42.5 ticket have the latter type.
This total was absolutely mashed into oblivion in the early going. The folks I referenced who bet on the under in the early going are few and far between, as the over was seeing more than 95% of the bets and dollars within the first 24 hours after opening.
This sharp and public onslaught has forced oddsmakers to make line moves that are more akin to a college football over/under, as the line has moved all the way from 42.5 to 46.5. There's still plenty of time left for this bad boy to rise even more, though I imagine buyback on the under could be in the not-too-distant future. Otherwise, we could have a very rare occurrence on our hands.
Since 2003, less than 1% of all regular-season games have had totals rise by four or more points (per Bet Labs). I guess that's what happens after the fans see Lamar Jackson toss five touchdowns.
I will remind you that this line opened after the Ravens scored 59 points against the Dolphins, so the oddsmakers already factored in their offensive aptitude when setting the opener at 42.5.
We shan't forget about Kyler Murray's fourth-quarter turnaround. After Cardinals fans had their Murray jerseys in a heap on the ground, lighter fluid bottle in hand, Murray went from totally inept to top pick stud in the blink of an eye.
With those two elements fresh on bettors minds, you can see why we have an over as popular as Pokémon circa 1999.
