Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Cardinals vs. Commanders | 1 p.m. ET
I’m at a stage in my life where I don’t get too hyped about anything, but the one thing I am looking forward to this year is nearly here – Cardinals vs. Commanders.
What’s so special about this Week 1 NFL game that features two embarrassments? Honestly, everything. By all accounts, the Cardinals are going to be absolutely terrible this year. Brandon Anderson, Action Network’s NFL and NBA extraordinaire, is an individual I trust with my life, and he has Arizona ranked last in his overall power rankings, offense rankings, defense rankings and coaching staff rankings.
I’m expecting a special kind of ineptitude in the desert. If Arizona somehow wins five games, my disappointment will be paramount – there’s nothing special about being a normal type of bad.
Any way, this brings me to my bet on this game: Jahan Dotson over 42.5 receiving yards.
Dotson somewhat flew under the radar in his rookie season, largely due to the fact that he only played in 12 games as he dealt with a hamstring injury. But, when he did play, he was impactful. He scored at a ridiculous clip, logging seven touchdowns in that modest sample, including a score in each Commanders game from Weeks 13-15.
While there’s probably regression coming in regards to scores, I that his talent is undeniable to the coaching staff and quarterback. Dotson averaged seven targets per game over the Commanders’ final five contests of the season, which was good for the team lead in that stretch. By comparison, Terry McLaurin, Washington’s WR1, trailed at 6.8 targets per game. Relevant to this game and bet is that McLaurin had a bout of turf toe during the preseason – though he’s no longer on the injury report and is a go for Week 1.
Dotson can rack up yards in bunches. Last season, he had a longest reception of at least 20 yards eight times. Getting spicier, he popped for a longest reception of at least 30 yards four times. He showcased an ability to beat secondaries both over the top:
WHAT A CATCH BY JAHAN DOTSON 😱
61 yard gain for the Commanders.
🎥 @NFL | @Commanderspic.twitter.com/mVHtwtxdVF
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 19, 2022
And after the catch:
Jahan Dotson just put the Giants' defense in a spin cycle pic.twitter.com/XR3eekg1bZ
— Alex Rocco (@AlexRocco13_) December 4, 2022
Stiff competition from Arizona’s cornerbacks shouldn’t be a thing here as the Cardinals boast an underwhelming group that features Marco Wilson, Antonio Hamilton Sr., Christian Matthew and Kei’Trel Clark (a sixth-round pick from this year’s draft). Of that group, only Hamilton grades out around average, according to PFF.
So yeah, I’m into Dotson. I'd play his receiving yards up to over 45.5. For full transparency, I bet it at 41.5 on DraftKings earlier in the week. That number is no longer available as the number now hovers around 42.5-45.5, depending on the sportsbook.
What do Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon think?
Not convinced? Well, let’s check out the projections (available on Action Labs) of Koerner and Raybon. They know a lot more about football and betting than me.
Raybon: 45.4 yards
Koerner: 43.9 yards
