None of our experts are touching either side of the spread or total for this Monday Night Football matchup, but there are props to be bet.
Using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's prop projections in Action Labs, I've been running well this season. The data led us to two more winners on Sunday in Week 14, and we're targeting two more noteworthy names for Cardinals vs Patriots.
These are just two of the many edges we're showing tonight. To get all the edges across all sports, subscribe to Action Labs today.
DeAndre Hopkins
Over 6.5 Receptions (+106, FanDuel)
Having written these posts all season, I’ve learned that if I’m getting a plus-money number on a bet that Koerner has someone projected to go over on, then I’m going to bet it.
That’s the case with Hopkins. Koerner projects him for 6.6 receptions against the Patriots, but we’re getting that over at +106 at FanDuel, as of 11 a.m. ET.
It makes sense why Hopkins is projected to go over what’s already a high receptions total. He’s comfortably cleared this number in four of his six games this season, registering at least nine catches in each of those contests. The two under saw him haul in just four receptions.
The Patriots are known for trying to take away the opposition’s best weapon, but they’ll have to pick their poison this week between Hopkins and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Murray has shown he can make the Cardinals offense hum with either of them serving as his go-to receiver.
This season, New England ranks 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, but it’s 20th against the No. 2. Hopkins is probably the No. 1 target who the Pats will be looking to defend, but that hasn’t stopped him from clearing this number before.
Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 Receptions |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nelson Agholor
Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-112, BetRivers)
Jakobi Meyers has missed two games this season, back in Weeks 3 and 4. In both of those, Agholor went over this total with 41 and 46 receiving yards.
The New England passing attack will never be described as “explosive,” and that includes Meyers. His absence, though, is still noteworthy. He’s averaging 5.1 targets per game over the Patriots’ last four, and he’s their leading receiver this season.
After seeing his playing time dip in the middle of the season, Agholor has played 59%, 78% and 56% of plays over the last three weeks. He was in that range in those weeks Meyers was out, as well.
DeVante Parker is likely to elevate into the No. 1 receiving role this week since he has played 85% and 87% of snaps over the past two weeks. His total is 10 yards higher than Agholor, but Chris Raybon projects him to go over 39.5 receiving yards by two.
Koerner’s projections peg Agholor for 34.9 receiving yards, showing a bigger edge on his over than Parker. As of 11 a.m. ET on Monday morning, you can get Agholor’s total at 29.5 receiving yards at BetRivers (-112) and BetMGM (-115).
