NFL Week 2 presents our first opportunity to bet games after having seen each team play, providing us with some data and insights to work with.
That takes me to Arizona, where the Cardinals host their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, in each team's first division matchup of the season.
Cardinals vs Rams Odds
Cardinals-Rams Spread: Cardinals -1.5 (-110) | Rams +1.5 (-110)
Cardinals-Rams Total: Over/Under 49 (-110 / -110)
Cardinals-Rams Moneylines: Cardinals -122 | Rams +102
As of Wednesday afternoon, the best available line on the under is 49.5 at bet365.
My Pick: Under 49.5
Cardinals-Rams Preview
Arizona opened its season with a loss to the Bills, while the Rams were defeated in overtime by the Lions. It was especially tough for L.A. which suffered a few key injuries that should hurt its offensive firepower.
First and foremost, second-year WR Puka Nacua is poised to miss a significant amount of time, having been placed on the injured reserve after aggravating a knee injury from training camp. He'll be out for a minimum of four weeks.
On the offensive line, guard/center Steve Avila was also placed on IR, while tackle Joe Noteboom suffered a high ankle sprain and guard Kevin Dotson is questionable with an ankle sprain.
There may be good news on the horizon as longtime veteran tackle Rob Havenstein could make his return as soon as this week. That would allow the Rams to move Warren McClendon Jr. to left tackle and slot Havenstein in at right tackle so that A.J. Arcuri doesn't have to start. Arcuri picked up just a 25.9 grade by Pro Football Focus in Week 1 after slotting in when Noteboom went down.
For Arizona, RT Jonah Williams has been ruled out of this week's contest. He'll be replaced by 35-year-old Kelvin Beachum, who's only had one season above a 62 PFF grade in the last three years. He was also below that threshold in Week 1 when filling in for Williams.
Rams Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
This is the matchup that has me most intrigued in betting this under.
Arizona generated the second-lowest pressure rate among all teams in Week 1 and allowed Josh Allen to carve them up to the tune of 10.1 yards per attempt and four touchdowns (two passing and two rushing). The Bills scored 34 points and registered an Expected Score of 39.7 points, which means Arizona was a bit lucky defensively.
However, thanks to the Rams' banged-up offensive line, Arizona is likely to generate more pressure than it did against Allen. While the Cardinals secondary got torched, it did have a combination of some bad luck and offered some positive signs.
Arizona allowed the most improbable catch of the week on a 28-yard pass from Allen to rookie WR Keon Coleman, which had just a 16.3% expected completion rate. The Cardinals also allowed a bottom-three separation distance at the time of catch. No Buffalo receiver was above league average in separation, according to PFF's Week 1 separation report. That's a testament to strong coverage by the Cardinals secondary.
The Rams, meanwhile, had only one receiver hit above league average in separation. That was Demarcus Robinson, who came out just 1.5% above avearge. The Rams also benefitted rom Tyler Johnson's 63-yard reception, which featured 59 yards after the catch above expectation. The Rams also ranked in the bottom three in separation distance in Week 1.
If the Cardinals can generate more pressure against a banged-up Rams offensive line, it could be tough sledding for Los Angeles' passing game, which had trouble separating and faces a defense that allowed one of the lowest average separation distances in Week 1.
Cardinals Offense vs. Rams Defense
Like Arizona, the Rams struggled to generate pressure; they were actually worse, ranking dead last in pressure rate in Week 1.
Fortunately for the Rams, they face Kyler Murray, who himself ranked last in time to throw and allowed an 80% pressure-to-sack rate against Buffalo. Arizona's run-heavy scheme means Murray can't afford to give up as many sacks as he did in Week 1 because there are fewer overall opportunities to make up for it.
Murray may have held onto the ball so long for a reason that plagues Arizona's offense even more than it did L.A.'s offense: separation. Cardinals pass catchers ranked dead last in separation in Week 1, and it wasn't particularly close. This should improve, as the Rams did allow the fifth-highest average separation, but Arizona still runs a run-oriented offense that ranked in the bottom five in pass rate over expectation last year.
Arizona was also lucky to put up 28 points on Buffalo, in large part thanks to DeeJay Dallas' 96-yard kickoff-return touchdown.
Cardinals-Rams Pick
This game features two quarterbacks who ranked in the bottom 12 in intended air yards in Week 1. Both teams feature receivers who struggled to create separation in their first game. While one side was lucky to score points (Arizona), the other is now banged-up offensively with a star WR out and an ailing offensive line. One offense is one of the most run-oriented in the league, while the other is slightly run-heavy by Pass Rate Over Expectation.
Run-heavy offenses with short passing games and receivers struggling to generate separation are the perfect recipe for the game clock to run. Barring some game breaking plays which tend to be more luck-oriented, I'd expect this number to stay south of the 49.5 currently being offered by bet365.
While 49 isn't a key number (it's the total that is least landed on between 43 and 52), we still want to grab the best number possible. According to our PRO Report, the majority of the money and bets are on the over, but sharp action keeps pushing this line down. You could gamble and wait for a 50, but I'm perfectly fine taking 49.5 knowing any movement upward will likely be met with sharp resistance.
I have this total closer to 47.5, so I'm not going to gamble and wait for another 50 to pop up when I'm perfectly fine with 49.5.
