The Carolina Panthers (4-12) and Atlanta Falcons (8-8) will face off in NFL Week 18. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. EST from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Panthers predictions and NFL picks for today's game.
The Falcons are favored by 7.5 points with the game total set at 47.5 (-110o / -110u). The Falcons are -360 favorites to win outright, while the Panthers are +285 to pull off the upset. Atlanta needs to win and have the Saints upset the Buccaneers to win the AFC South.
Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction
Spread
Make no mistake, the Panthers were mauled by the Buccaneers in Week 17. However, trends like Carolina against the spread in this spot — and so do I.
Moneyline
While I like the Panthers to cover, I will not be betting on their moneyline.
Over/Under
The game total is also a pass for me.
My Pick: Panthers +7.5
Panthers vs. Falcons Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +285 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -360 |
- Panthers vs. Falcons spread: Panthers +7.5 (-110), Falcons -7.5 (-110)
- Panthers vs. Falcons over/under: 48.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Panthers vs. Falcons moneyline: Falcons -360, Panthers +285
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs. Falcons Betting Preview
- 61% of bets and 66% of money on the spread are on the Falcons to cover.
- 66% of bets and 79% of money on the game total are on the OVER.
- 93% of bets and 83% of money on the moneyline are on the Falcons.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Picks
After Panthers Island blew up in my face earlier this season, I'm back for one more game — and this might be one of my favorite bets of the season.
I don’t think these teams are actually that far apart as I make this line below Falcons -6. The Panthers have been playing better down the stretch despite losing five of their last six games, including a brutal showing last week against the Buccaneers.
The Falcons dropped into the bottom five in DVOA with Kirk Cousins under center, but the pass offense is still 26th over the last two games with Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta has moved up to fifth in pass defense, but I’m not reading too much into that. Matchups against the Raiders and Giants in its last three games undoubtedly helped that cause.
The Panthers have been an average team over the second half of the season, and that’s including a pair of absolute stinkers against the Cowboys and Buccaneers. Carolina’s pass defense has improved to be an above-average unit; now it gets to face a rookie quarterback in the biggest game of his young career.
The Panthers have their quarterback (for now) and head coach. There’s no tanking here.
A four-win season this year is too good to be near the top of the draft board. That means this is Carolina’s Super Bowl.
The only way the Falcons are 8.5 points better than the Panthers is if you trust their recent defensive improvements. This is the same defense, though, that struggled to get the Commanders off the field and will be exhausted after facing 77 plays. Washington had 42 minutes in time of possession, including a gruelingly meticulous drive to win the game in overtime.
The trends say this is a spot to back Carolina. Teams with a win percentage between 40-60% facing a team between 8-25% are 31-77-5 (39%) against the spread. Also, teams that must win facing eliminated teams over the last two weeks of the season cover at a 40% clip.
Lastly, a road team that failed to cover by 24 or more points covers at a 65% clip the following week, and teams that lost by 31 or more and are 'dogs of four or more points cover at a 67% clip the following week.
My Pick: Panthers +7.5
