CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott and Christian McCaffrey lead the charge as the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday night's Cowboys vs. 49ers Divisional Round tilt.
Our premier data analytics expert, Sean Koerner, assessed whether Lamb, Prescott and McCaffrey's most popular picks are valuable. These prop bets mostly target the anytime touchdown marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Cowboys vs. 49ers Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- CeeDee Lamb to score a TD anytime (+155)
- Dak Prescott to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns (-120)
- Christian McCaffrey to score a TD anytime (-155)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
None of the retail bettors' favorite picks for 49ers vs. Cowboys have value in the clinical sense.
But one ancillary line does — the under on Prescott's TD prop.
While the over should be priced around +105, the best market price with FanDuel only scratches the surface at +102. At PointsBet's price of -120, it's definitely a stay away.
But at PointsBet's price for the under — at a vig of -110 — it's a worthwhile bet, according to Koerner.
The fair value price of that line is about -115. That means you're receiving a roughly 1% betting edge.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 1% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Meanwhile, Lamb should be priced closer to +180 in the anytime TD market, according to Koerner. His best market price is with BetMGM at +175.
And McCaffrey should be priced at -125. His best market price is with DraftKings at -140.
