49ers vs Chargers Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 45.5 -108o / -112u | -360 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 45.5 -108o / -112u | +290 |
If the season ended after last week, the 5-3 Chargers would have had the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. However, they only sat one-half game ahead of the Bengals and Patriots, both of whom are on bye this week.
On the other side, the 49ers (4-4) find themselves in the same boat in the NFC, with a half-game lead over the Commanders for the last spot in the playoffs.
Consequently, this outcome and every result the rest of the way are even more critical for both clubs, both of which still have aspirations of winning their respective West division.
The similarities don't stop there for these two West Coast teams. Each has dealt with an inordinate number of injuries, which have seemingly been a trend for both in recent seasons. The 49ers look to be in better shape in that department currently and moving forward, but that can change quickly in the NFL.
So, who has the edge in this non-conference battle in primetime? Let's take a closer look at the key matchup that I believe will decide this game before getting into my wager on Sunday Night Football.
49ers vs Chargers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Chargers match up statistically:
49ers vs. Chargers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 20 | 9 | |
| Pass DVOA | 16 | 13 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 4 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 13 | 17 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 10 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 29 | |
When healthy, the 49ers arguably have the best defense in the NFL. However, they will not have the services of a few key defenders on Sunday night, including CB Jason Verrett (IR), DT Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) and LB Azeez Al-Shaair (IR) San Francisco also listed starting defensive end Samson Ebukam as doubtful, leaving a defensive line that is already without Javon Kinlaw a bit undermanned.
That said, the 49ers still have more than enough playmakers at every level to shut down a very shorthanded Chargers offense. Los Angeles will have to make do without starting WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and it has already lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater to a season-ending injury.
Last week, Los Angeles could only muster 20 points against a very poor Atlanta defense that creates no pressure and had a banged-up secondary. The test gets much tougher this week against a 49ers unit that should be in quarterback Justin Herbert's face all night.
Chargers +7.5 | 49ers -7.5
With expected pressure and backup receivers on the outside, Herbert will likely look running back Austin Ekeler's way often in the passing game. However, that might not lead to much success against a 49ers defense that has the speed at linebacker to match up with Ekeler. On the season, San Francisco ranks second in DVOA against opposing backs in the passing game.
I'm just not sure how Los Angeles will sustain drives here, especially since I'm just not a big fan of how Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi calls a game.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers offense appears to be at full strength, including the newly acquired Christian McCaffrey, who will only get more comfortable in Kyle Shanahan's offense as the season progresses.
San Francisco wants to lean on its ground game, which it can do against a shaky Los Angeles run defense that may not have Joey Bosa for another week. For the season, the Chargers have allowed a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.
Betting Picks
I don't see much value in this spread, which is fairly in line with my projections. Although, taking over a touchdown with a quarterback of Justin Herbert's caliber is certainly tempting in this season's lower-scoring environment where underdogs of more than a field goal went 52-28 (65%) against the spread (ATS) over the first nine weeks. (For reference, underdogs of over a touchdown entered Week 10 with a 14-7 record ATS.)
Additionally, Shanahan has really struggled in his career as a home favorite at 8-15-1 (34.8%) ATS.
Ultimately, I decided to pass on the spread, but I did bet the under earlier in the week.
As I mentioned earlier, I expect San Francisco to lean on its ground game, which actually hasn't been as efficient as recent seasons, ranking 20th or worse in both Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush and Rush Success Rate.
However, the 49ers just recently traded for McCaffrey and has also dealt with injuries along the offensive line and backfield throughout the season. Those numbers should continue to improve, but there are still some questions surrounding the interior of the offensive line.
The Chargers have given up far too many explosive runs, which has driven up their yards per rush allowed. That's not ideal, but Los Angeles actually been a bit better on a down-to-down basis than you may have thought, ranking 18th in Rush Success Rate.
What does that mean? San Francisco should have success moving it on the ground, but Los Angeles will make them work a bit. I don't think the 49ers are going to explode offensively, but they should win the time of possession by a wide margin. That's critical in a matchup of two polar opposites in terms of tempo. The Chargers actually lead the league in pace in neutral situations, while the 49ers rank 26th.
Most importantly, I just don't know how this shorthanded Chargers offense consistently moves the ball.
Pick: Under 45.5 | Bet to 45 |
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