Chargers vs 49ers Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -335 |
Chargers vs 49ers Picks
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Billy Ward: While Ekeler is an awesome fantasy option this — and every — week, it's not because of his rushing production. He's 3-5 against this line so far on the season, and this is an especially bad situation.
At No. 4 in rushing defense DVOA, the 49ers are the toughest matchup that Ekeler has faced in 2022. In fact, he's only gone up against one top-10 rushing defense so far — that was the Seahawks, who held him to nine carries for 31 yards.
That game was a 23-37 loss for the Chargers, with the negative game script contributing to his lack of carries. With Los Angeles as seven-point underdogs, that's the likely scenario in this game as well.
Even if it's closer than expected, Ekeler is unlikely to see a massive carry total. With the expected decrease in efficiency, that will make it tough for him to clear this line. I wouldn't take it much lower though.
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Charlie DiSturco: In what is expected to be a negative game script, Justin Herbert’s safety valve will be used early and often.
Once again going into a game without the duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Ekeler should see a heavy workload. Last week, he hauled in seven receptions for just 24 yards.
It was Ekeler's third straight week being targeted at least eight times and he has gone over this 40.5 number in five of eight games this season. In all three losses he had 48-plus receiving yards.
Los Angeles’ offensive line has been banged up and Trey Pipkins is now out. Herbert should see plenty of traffic all night from a healthier 49ers defense, which should result in constant checkdowns to Ekeler.
The Chargers will also struggle to find success on the ground. San Francisco’s rush defense is seventh, per PFF, and should force a pass-heavy game script.
This number is too low for Ekeler, who is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. He should see near double-digit receptions once again and I expect him to breeze by this number.
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Ricky Henne: Few teams start out slower than the Chargers.
They’ve been outscored a ridiculous 37-0 in the first quarter of their last three games. Their offense has gone three-and-out four times with three turnovers over that span.
Struggling off the bat is a trend that’s been there all season. They’ve led after the first quarter only twice, while teams have scored on their opening drive four times.
On the flip side, San Francisco is coming off a bye and have had two weeks to script their opening possessions. They’re also getting a whopping eight players back from injury, including Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell.
It’s anyone’s guess what the 49ers’ offense will look like adding those two players to a unit now boasting Christian McCaffrey. Throw in a surging Brandon Aiyuk — and one of the top tight ends in George Kittle — and it might take the Bolts a few possessions to adjust to San Francisco’s new-look offense.
Add in the typical spark teams get at home in primetime games and it looks good for the 49ers to take an early lead at the end of one.
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Chris Raybon: Although Juszczyk is a fullback by trade, he has been Kyle Shanahan’s most trusted passing-down back for the better part of the past two seasons, often lining up as the lone back in shotgun formations on passing downs.
As such, 40% of Juszczyk’s targets this season have come on third or fourth down and 67% have come when the 49ers are trailing. That will change now that the team has acquired Christian McCaffrey, who figures to relegate Juszczyk to early down work.
Going forward, Juszczyk’s passing-down usage figures to be more similar to Weeks 1-2, when he was playing more of a traditional fullback role and averaging a 32% route participation rate and 9.5 routes per game compared to Weeks 3-7, when he averaged a 48% route participation rate and 17.6 routes per game. He didn’t catch a pass in either of the first two games and has been held under 1.5 receptions in four of seven games overall.
It’s also worth noting that Juszczyk is returning from finger surgery, which makes it less likely he’s a major part of the passing game.
I have Juszczyk projected for exactly one reception and have him going under 69.7% of the time.
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Nick Giffen: The Chargers kick field goals at the sixth-lowest rate relative to expectation on fourth downs. They have also gone for two-point conversions after scoring a touchdown 14.1% of the time – league average is 10% – in the Brandon Staley era.
There isn’t much value individually on the field goal or extra point under, so bundling them into one prop is the way to go.
I have Dicker going under 61.6% of the time and would bet this to -145.
